Key findings
HVAC & Refrigeration tops the index at 82.3, the most AI-resilient and highest-upside trade of the 13 scored.
Median wage and AI-resilience move together across the trades (correlation +0.72): the trades that pay the most are also the hardest for AI to replace.
Plumbing pays a median $30.27/hr versus $16.84/hr for Commercial Cleaning & Janitorial, skilled physical work commands the premium AI can't erode.
Even the lowest-scoring trade, Painting & Wall Finishing, scores 69.3: every skilled trade is AI-resilient in absolute terms because the core work is physical and on-site.
Commercial Cleaning & Janitorial carries the most recurring revenue at 85%, the contract and service-agreement base that turns a trade into predictable, compounding cash.
Every trade is scored across 42 data topics, 50 states, and 50 metros, with 91% of figures reviewed in two or more research passes. Passes are workflow repetitions, not independent evidence counts.
The Trade AI Score
Each trade’s headline number is its Trade AI Score (TAS): the composite of AI-Resilience and AI-Leverage on a 0-100 scale. Every skilled trade is AI-resilient in absolute terms, so the quadrant plots relative position: where each trade stands versus its peers. Top-right trades are both protected and full of upside. Bottom-left are exposed and slow to gain.
Wages track resilience
The trades that pay the most also tend to be the hardest for AI to touch. Median hourly wage against AI-Resilience, one dot per trade, sized by U.S. employment. Skilled physical labor commands a wage and resists automation, which is the whole thesis in one chart.
Every trade, ranked
What do these businesses sell for?
Privately held trade contractors sell for a median 3x to 10.45x EBITDA, from 2.4x for a small owner-operator shop to 20x for a scaled national platform. The multiple is set far more by size and revenue quality than by which trade you are in.
Every trade ranked, with tier ladders, fragmentation, named acquirers, and sources: what trade businesses sell for.
How the index is built
Published numeric facts retain a citation and confidence tier. Repeated research passes are disclosed as workflow metadata, not counted as independent evidence sources.
Full scoring model, sub-score weights, and provenance: methodology. Original analysis, scores, and compilation are open under CC BY 4.0. Cited third-party material retains its original rights: data & downloads.
Where does your shop stand?
The index scores the trade. A companion tool lets you place your shop on it.
Answer four plain questions about your own numbers and see where each one lands against the trade benchmark. No sign-up, nothing saved.