Key findings
HVAC & Refrigeration has the highest composite Trade AI Score, 82.3, among the 13 scored. The separate resilience and leverage rankings can differ.
Median wage and editorial AI-resilience scores are positively associated across 11 trades (unweighted correlation +0.80). This comparison does not establish a cause.
Plumbing pays a median $30.27/hr versus $16.84/hr for Commercial Cleaning & Janitorial. These are wage observations, not a forecast of AI's effect on pay.
The lowest composite score is 69.3, for Painting & Wall Finishing. The index's editorial thesis emphasizes physical, on-site work; these scores are relative comparisons, not absolute risk forecasts.
Commercial Cleaning & Janitorial has the highest retained recurring-revenue reference, 85%. Legacy reference, scope unverified: source definitions differ by trade, so this is not a current ranking or cash-flow finding.
Coverage reaches up to 42 data topics, 50 states, and 50 metros per trade, with 91% of figures reviewed in two or more research passes. Passes are workflow repetitions, not independent evidence counts.
The Trade AI Score
Each trade’s headline number is its Trade AI Score (TAS): the composite of AI-Resilience and AI-Leverage on a 0-100 scale. Every skilled trade is AI-resilient in absolute terms, so the quadrant plots relative position: where each trade stands versus its peers. Top-right trades are both protected and full of upside. Bottom-left are exposed and slow to gain.
Wages track resilience
The trades that pay the most also tend to be the hardest for AI to touch. Median hourly wage against AI-Resilience, one dot per trade with a published median wage, sized by U.S. employment. Skilled physical labor commands a wage and resists automation, which is the whole thesis in one chart.
Every trade, ranked
What do these businesses sell for?
Legacy reference, scope unverified. Retained research references have median endpoints of 3x to 10.45x (mixed source cohorts), from a retained lower endpoint of 2.4x (basis not certified) to 20x at the highest retained endpoint (basis not certified). Includes Glass & Glazing's single non-bound figure; not a median of comparable trade ranges.Do not use these legacy figures alone for a current valuation, ranking or finance decision.
Trades with two-ended retained ranges ranked; every trade's tier ladders, fragmentation, named acquirers, and sources: what trade businesses sell for.
How the index is built
Published numeric facts retain a citation and confidence tier. Repeated research passes are disclosed as workflow metadata, not counted as independent evidence sources.
Full scoring model, sub-score weights, and provenance: methodology. Original analysis, scores, and compilation are open under CC BY 4.0. Cited third-party material retains its original rights: data & downloads.
Where does your shop stand?
The index scores the trade. A companion tool lets you place your shop on it.
Answer four plain questions about your own numbers and see where each one lands against retained reference figures. No sign-up, nothing saved.