What is the Trade Economy Index?

An independent 2026 index scoring the 13 major U.S. skilled trades on two axes: AI-Resilience (how protected the trade's core work is from AI) and AI-Leverage (how much profit AI can unlock by orchestrating the work around the labor). It is grounded in public labor, permit, market, review, and equity data plus aggregate operating benchmarks from Level CFO.

How is AI-Resilience scored?

AI-Resilience is a weighted average of four sub-scores: Physical/on-site core (35%), Disintermediation resistance (25%), AI-native entry barrier (20%), Customer lock-in (20%).

How is AI-Leverage scored?

AI-Leverage is a weighted average of four sub-scores: Coordination/back-office drag (35%), Operating-leverage step-change (25%), Revenue expansion (20%), Domain-data amplification (20%).

Which skilled trade scores highest on the Trade Economy Index?

HVAC & Refrigeration has the highest composite index score at 82.3 (AI-Resilience 83.4, AI-Leverage 81.3), placing it in the Transform & Win quadrant.

Are the skilled trades safe from AI?

Every skilled trade is AI-resilient in absolute terms because the core work is physical and on-site, which AI cannot perform. The index therefore shows relative position among trades, and it also measures AI-Leverage: how much unrealized profit AI can unlock in coordination, estimating, scheduling, billing, and cash collection around that labor.

The Trade Economy Index

The two axes

Every skilled trade is AI-resilient in absolute terms. That is the thesis: AI cannot swing the wrench. So the two axes measure it directly, then the quadrant chart plots each trade’s relative position among its peers so an owner can see where their trade actually stands.

AI-Resilience

How protected the trade’s core value is from AI/automation.

Sub-score	Weight	What it measures
Physical/on-site core	35%	How much of the paid work requires hands-on, on-site skilled labor an AI agent cannot perform.
Disintermediation resistance	25%	How hard it is for an AI agent or platform to bypass the contractor and go direct.
AI-native entry barrier	20%	Licensing, trust, relationships, and physical presence that block AI-native new entrants.
Customer lock-in	20%	Service agreements, recurring maintenance, and relationships that retain customers.

AI-Leverage

How much unrealized profit AI can unlock by orchestrating the work around the labor.

Sub-score	Weight	What it measures
Coordination/back-office drag	35%	Share of cost/time in coordination, estimating, scheduling, billing — the work AI can orchestrate.
Operating-leverage step-change	25%	Margin recoverable from mis-costed jobs, rework, billing lag, and cash trapped in open work.
Revenue expansion	20%	Upside from better bidding, pull-through, and new service lines AI can unlock.
Domain-data amplification	20%	How much the trade's proprietary job data compounds in value with AI (Level's core thesis).

The four quadrants

Plotting relative AI-Resilience (x) against relative AI-Leverage (y) splits the trades into four positions. Position, not color, carries the meaning.

Transform & Win

Protected from AI and full of upside. The best place to be. Press the advantage.

Safe Haven

Well protected, with upside already partly captured. Defend the moat.

Race to Modernize

Real AI upside, but more exposed. Speed of adoption decides who wins.

Under Pressure

Lower relative protection and slower to gain. The hardest corner.

Dimensions published alongside the AI scores

The AI-Resilience and AI-Leverage model stays a clean, defensible thesis. Four further dimensions are published alongside it, not folded into the scores, so each can be cited on its own.

Dimension	What it is
ai scores	AI-Resilience x AI-Leverage — the core AI thesis (see axes).
reputation	Reputation & professionalization from public review listings — a market-quality dimension published alongside (NOT inside) the AI scores, so the AI model stays a clean, defensible thesis.
firmographics	Company size, revenue & age per trade from a national multi-source business firmographic dataset — a market-structure dimension, also published alongside the AI scores.
market structure	National permit/contractor-density aggregates + Level CFO operating benchmarks.
validation	Public-equity comp returns as an external market-validation axis.

Data provenance

Public sources

BLS/OEWS labor stats, IBISWorld/CFMA market & financial benchmarks, public county tax-assessor and building-permit records, public business registries, public business-review listings, and public-equity filings. Every number carries a source.

Proprietary aggregates

Aggregate operating benchmarks provided by Level CFO (n disclosed). Aggregate-only; no individual company identified.

On independence: this index is compiled by Sam Yang at Level CFO, which serves contractors in several of these trades. Level owns some of the aggregate operating data cited here and says so plainly. Provenance and a published methodology come before authority. Nothing here is dressed up as third-party research.

How each trade was scored

The one-line basis behind each trade’s sub-scores. Full per-trade detail lives on each trade page.

Trade	Index	Basis
HVAC & Refrigeration	82.3	On-site repair/install AI cannot perform; heavy service-agreement lock-in; strong recurring revenue. High coordination drag (dispatch, parts, warranty) = large AI upside. Level core vertical.
Plumbing	76.5	Highly physical, emergency-driven, licensed. Lower recurring lock-in than HVAC. Solid but less service-agreement upside.
Electrical	80.2	Licensed, physical, code-bound. Controls/low-voltage adds tech-enabled revenue expansion. Strong AI upside in estimating/design.
Roofing	74.8	Physical work AI cannot do, but low lock-in and easy new-entrant flow (storm chasers). Big operating-leverage upside: insurance/retail cash-cycle, closeout lag, mis-costed jobs.
Glass & Glazing	76.8	Custom fabrication + install, project-driven, PM-referral relationships. Job-costing complexity = strong AI-leverage. Level customer vertical (San Mateo Glass).
Doors & Access	78.6	Install + recurring service/maintenance (dock, access control) = good lock-in. Commercial payment-term cash lag = operating-leverage upside. Level customer vertical (KP Doors).
Landscaping & Grounds	74.9	Physical, but highly fragmented and low entry barrier. Recurring maintenance contracts help lock-in. Crew-productivity + design-build job costing = large AI upside. Level customer vertical (Prestige).
Commercial Cleaning & Janitorial	74	Physical/fine-motor work robots struggle with, recurring contracts, but very low entry barrier and commodity pricing. Labor-heavy, thin margins = big operating-leverage + true-cost upside. Level customer vertical (AMR).
Painting & Wall Finishing	69.3	Physical, but lowest entry barrier and lock-in of the set. Commercial vs residential margin gap + job costing = operating-leverage upside. Level SMB-tier signal (Jace Barber).
Concrete & Masonry	75.5	Heavy physical, capital + skill barrier. Project-based, WIP/retainage complexity = strong operating-leverage upside. Low recurring lock-in.
Fire & Life Safety	81.7	Code-mandated recurring inspection = exceptional lock-in + entry barrier. Compliance recurring revenue. Strong AI upside in scheduling/compliance tracking.
Low-Voltage & Security	76.3	More tech-exposed than pure trades (some remote/monitoring), but recurring monitoring contracts = strong lock-in and revenue expansion. High data-amplification.
Restoration & Remediation	76.8	Emergency physical work, insurance-driven. Very high coordination drag (insurance docs, adjusters, closeout) + cash-cycle pain = large AI + operating-leverage upside. Low lock-in.