Transform & Win · Level vertical

HVAC & Refrigeration

On-site repair/install AI cannot perform; heavy service-agreement lock-in; strong recurring revenue. High coordination drag (dispatch, parts, warranty) = large AI upside. Level core vertical.

82.3
Index score
83.4
AI-Resilience
how safe the work is from AI
81.3
AI-Leverage
profit AI can unlock
3.74
Avg rating (n=42,943)

The numbers

What a hvac shop actually runs on. Published figures retain their citations and confidence badges. Research-pass counts describe repeated review runs, not independent evidence.

$28.75/hr
Median wage6 research passes · official source
21.01%
Job gross margin6 research passes · high confidence
7.43%
Net margin6 research passes · medium
18%
Recurring revenue5 research passes · verified
425,200
US employment6 research passes · official source
$10.8M
Median company revenue
Customer economics

What could one customer property be worth to your trade?

Estimate one property, then compare the same scoped method with Level's measured building stock across all 50 states, DC, and 100 metros. Commercial and residential evidence stay separate, and every planning assumption is editable.

Value a commercial buildingValue a homeBrowse state and metro opportunity data

Download the canonical 2,265-row CSV. TradeIndex links to Level's source rather than copying the matrix.

The two axes

AI-Resilience

83.4
Physical/on-site coreHow much of the paid work requires hands-on, on-site skilled labor an AI agent cannot perform.
90
Disintermediation resistanceHow hard it is for an AI agent or platform to bypass the contractor and go direct.
78
AI-native entry barrierLicensing, trust, relationships, and physical presence that block AI-native new entrants.
80
Customer lock-inService agreements, recurring maintenance, and relationships that retain customers.
82

AI-Leverage

81.3
Coordination/back-office dragShare of cost/time in coordination, estimating, scheduling, billing, the work AI can orchestrate.
80
Operating-leverage step-changeMargin recoverable from mis-costed jobs, rework, billing lag, and cash trapped in open work.
85
Revenue expansionUpside from better bidding, pull-through, and new service lines AI can unlock.
78
Domain-data amplificationHow much the trade's proprietary job data compounds in value with AI (Level's core thesis).
82

Sub-score weights and definitions: methodology.

What does an HVAC business sell for?

HVAC & Refrigeration businesses sell for 3.4x to 10.9x EBITDA, averaging 9.5x. The multiple is set mostly by scale: small owner-operator shops (sub-$1M) trade at 3x to 5x, while scaled platforms ($10M+) reach 9x to 13x. Based on 2025-2026 transactions. Large scaled platforms are a separate tier and have printed as high as 19x, documented below. That places HVAC 6 of 13 trades on the index by top-of-range multiple.

Source: First Page Sage, 'HVAC EBITDA & Valuation Multiples - 2025 Report' (2025) | Capstone Partners, 'HVAC Services M&A Update' (2026) · 4 research passes

While valuation multiples have normalized from peak pandemic spikes to average around 9.5x EV/EBITDA (2.0x EV/Revenue) for mid-market transactions and 2.5x-5.0x SDE for smaller Main Street businesses, total deal flow remains elevated due to market fragmentation and an aging installed base of systems requiring replacement.
Source: Capstone Partners HVAC Services M&A Sector Update (2025) and BizBuySell HVAC Business Transaction Trends (2025)
Buyer tierCompany size (EBITDA)EV/EBITDA multiple
Tuck-in / add-onsub-$1M3x to 5x
Regional platform$1M-$3M5x to 7.5x
Regional platform$3M-$10M7x to 10x
National platform$10M+9x to 13x

The tier breakdown below runs 3x to 13x, extending on both ends of the 3.4x to 10.9x headline range. The headline range is a median reconciled across cited research inputs; the tier breakdown is a single named source's ladder. Both are reported as published rather than averaged together.

HVAC multiples scale significantly by company size and earnings tier: small tuck-ins and sub-$1M EBITDA operators trade at 3.0x-5.0x EBITDA; established contractors with $1M-$3M EBITDA range from 5.0x-7.5x EBITDA; multi-location platforms with $3M-$10M EBITDA command 7.0x-10.0x EBITDA; and large platform-grade businesses with $10M+ EBITDA achieve 9.0x-13.0x+ EBITDA.
Source: PKF O'Connor Davies 'Summer 2025 HVAC M&A Industry Update', 2025, and Breakwater M&A 'HVAC Valuation & M&A Guide', 2026

Above the range: documented platform transactions to 19x. The range above describes privately held HVAC contractors, and its sources sample the lower middle market. Large scaled platforms and institutional recapitalizations have printed materially higher. These are reported separately rather than folded into the range, because a business that is not a national platform should not price itself off one.

Valuations remain elevated, with PE Hub (March 2026) reporting scaled residential HVAC roll-up platforms trading at 16x-19x EBITDA and commercial/industrial HVAC/R platforms trading at 10x-17x EBITDA.
Source: Capstone Partners (2026); PitchBook Data (2025); S&P Global Market Intelligence (2025); PE Hub (2026)
Prominent PE-backed platforms driving HVAC & Refrigeration roll-up consolidation include: (1) Apex Service Partners (Alpine Investors / Apollo Global Management; Apollo made a strategic investment at a ~$10B EV in May 2026, with Apex closing ~60 add-ons in 2025 alone); (2) CoolSys (Ares Management; commercial and industrial refrigeration and HVAC platform with over 10 add-on acquisitions); (3) Wrench Group (Leonard Green & Partners; national home services platform combining residential HVAC, plumbing, and electrical providers); (4) Sila Services (Goldman Sachs Alternatives; $1.5B platform deal, acquiring over 35 regional HVAC brands); (5) Service Champions / Champions Group (acquired by Blackstone at a $2.5B EV / 18.5x EBITDA); and (6) Nextech (Audax Private Equity; commercial HVAC/R service platform across 40+ locations).
Source: PE Hub (2026); PitchBook Data (2025); Capstone Partners (2026)
HVAC multiples scale significantly by company size and earnings tier: small tuck-ins and sub-$1M EBITDA operators trade at 3.0x-5.0x EBITDA; established contractors with $1M-$3M EBITDA range from 5.0x-7.5x EBITDA; multi-location platforms with $3M-$10M EBITDA command 7.0x-10.0x EBITDA; and large platform-grade businesses with $10M+ EBITDA achieve 9.0x-13.0x+ EBITDA.
Source: PKF O'Connor Davies 'Summer 2025 HVAC M&A Industry Update', 2025, and Breakwater M&A 'HVAC Valuation & M&A Guide', 2026

Why buyers are active. The four largest firms hold 4.1% of this market, which is the fragmentation that makes a roll-up cheaper to assemble than to build. Source: U.S. Small Business Administration, 'Small Business Size Standards: Agriculture, Forestry, Fishing and Hunting; Mining, Quarrying, and Oil and Gas Extraction; Utilities; Construction', Proposed Rule, 85 FR 62239 (October 2, 2020), Table 4 'Size Standards Supported by Each Factor for Each Industry (Receipts)' at 85 FR 62248, column (6) headed 'Four-firm ratio (%)', row NAICS 238220 Plumbing, Heating, and Air-Conditioning Contractors. Derived by SBA from the U.S. Census Bureau special tabulation of the 2012 Economic Census. · 1 research pass

Who is buying, and what they pay for

Current buyer demand for US HVAC & Refrigeration businesses is strong and heavily dominated by private equity (PE) buy-and-build rollups as well as strategic consolidators. PE firms and portfolio platform add-ons account for over 50% of total industry transactions. Buyers value most: (1) recurring service and annual maintenance contract revenue, which provides predictable cash flows; (2) strong technician recruitment and workforce retention capabilities; (3) geographic branch density within target metros; and (4) high-demand specialized services such as industrial refrigeration, data center thermal management, and multi-trade service bundling (HVAC combined with plumbing and electrical).

Source: Capstone Partners HVAC Services Sector Update (2025) and PitchBook / Main Street Wealth HVAC Private Equity Analyst Note (2025)

Named acquirers. Prominent PE-backed platforms driving HVAC & Refrigeration roll-up consolidation include: (1) Apex Service Partners (Alpine Investors / Apollo Global Management; Apollo made a strategic investment at a ~$10B EV in May 2026, with Apex closing ~60 add-ons in 2025 alone); (2) CoolSys (Ares Management; commercial and industrial refrigeration and HVAC platform with over 10 add-on acquisitions); (3) Wrench Group (Leonard Green & Partners; national home services platform combining residential HVAC, plumbing, and electrical providers); (4) Sila Services (Goldman Sachs Alternatives; $1.5B platform deal, acquiring over 35 regional HVAC brands); (5) Service Champions / Champions Group (acquired by Blackstone at a $2.5B EV / 18.5x EBITDA); and (6) Nextech (Audax Private Equity; commercial HVAC/R service platform across 40+ locations).

Source: PE Hub (2026); PitchBook Data (2025); Capstone Partners (2026)

A multiple is applied to adjusted EBITDA, and for most contractors that earnings figure is the contested part: job costing that misallocates labor, untracked work in progress, and un-normalized owner compensation all move it before any multiple applies, and a buyer recomputes it in diligence. Level CFO publishes the operating side of that, contractor margin and cash benchmarks by trade. Compare every trade’s multiple side by side on what trade businesses sell for.

The research

Published numbers retain citations from public sources such as BLS/OEWS, licensing boards, permit records, and public filings. Badges show confidence and repeated research-pass counts. Pass counts are workflow metadata, not counts of independent evidence sources.

Labor & workforce

Wages & compensation

Median Hourly Wage6 research passes · official source$28.75
Median Annual Wage6 research passes · official source$60K
Pct25 Hourly Wage6 research passes · official source$23
Pct75 Hourly Wage6 research passes · official source$35.97
Pct90 Hourly Wage6 research passes · official source$43.76
Pct10 Hourly Wage6 research passes · official source$18.81
Sources (2)
  • U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics Occupational Employment and Wage Statistics (OEWS), May 2024
  • U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics Occupational Outlook Handbook (OOH), May 2024

Employment

Us Employment6 research passes · official source425,200
Projected 10yr Growth6 research passes · official source8%
Annual Openings6 research passes · official source40,100
Projected 10yr Net Change6 research passes · official source34,500
Sources (2)
  • U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, Occupational Outlook Handbook (2024)
  • U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, Occupational Outlook Handbook (2024-2034)

Labor shortage

Unfilled Openings5 research passes · medium110,000
Vacancy Rate3 research passes · verified3.5%
Vacancy Rate Pct Shared Across7%

Shortage Note. Associated Builders and Contractors (ABC) models an industry-wide need to attract 439,000 net new construction workers in 2025 and 499,000 in 2026, while the Plumbing-Heating-Cooling Contractors Association (PHCC) projects a need for 114,500 new workers in the plumbing-heating-cooling sector by 2028.

Vacancy Rate Pct Note. This figure is an industry-wide benchmark, not a per-trade measurement: the same value is published for 7 trade or segment records in this dataset. Read it as the specialty-trade baseline, not as a finding that distinguishes this trade from another.

Sources (3)
  • Sheet Metal and Air Conditioning Contractors' National Association (SMACNA), 2025
  • U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS), 2026
  • Associated Builders and Contractors (ABC), 2025, / Plumbing-Heating-Cooling Contractors Association (PHCC), 2026, https://www.phccweb.org

Workforce aging

Median Worker Age6 research passes · official source39.9
Pct Over 556 research passes · official source18.7

Retirement Note. An estimated 40,100 job openings per year are projected for heating, air conditioning, and refrigeration mechanics and installers from 2024 to 2034, largely driven by the need to replace workers who exit the labor force, such as to retire.

Sources (2)
  • U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, Current Population Survey, Household Data Annual Averages, Table 11b (
  • U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, Occupational Outlook Handbook (

Training pipeline

Apprenticeship Enrollment3 research passes · high confidence8,535
Annual Completions3 research passes · medium23,253

Pipeline Gap Note. The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics projects 40,100 average annual job openings for Heating, Air Conditioning, and Refrigeration Mechanics and Installers (SOC 49-9021) between 2024 and 2034, primarily driven by worker retirements and labor force exits, resulting in a substantial workforce pipeline deficit compared to new apprenticeship completers and trade program entrants.

Sources (3)
  • U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics / Employment and Training Administration Office of Apprenticeship, 'Looking at apprenticeships outside the construction trades' (Career Outlook, November 2022)
  • U.S. Department of Education, National Center for Education Statistics (NCES) IPEDS Data via DataUSA, 'HVAC & Refrigeration Maintenance (CIP 47.0201) Total Degrees & Certificates Awarded', 2024
  • U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, Occupational Outlook Handbook, 'Heating, Air Conditioning, and Refrigeration Mechanics and Installers' (2024-2034 Employment Projections, August 2025)

Immigration reliance

Pct Foreign Born5 research passes · high confidence17.4

Visa Dependence Note. In contrast to labor-intensive construction trades (such as drywall, roofing, and masonry where foreign-born representation exceeds 50%), technical skilled trades like HVAC technicians attract fewer immigrant workers due to requirements for longer formal training, apprenticeship, and state/local professional licensing. Additionally, legal temporary labor recruitment for non-agricultural trades is constrained by federal H-2B visa statutory caps (66,000 annually nationwide across all non-agricultural industries).

Sources (2)
  • U.S. Census Bureau, American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates (
  • National Association of Home Builders (NAHB) Eye on Housing (

Unionization

Union Membership5 research passes · high confidence15.4%

Prevailing Wage Note. HVAC system installation, alteration, repair, and testing, adjusting, and balancing (TAB) work performed on federal or federally assisted public construction projects are covered under the Davis-Bacon and Related Acts (DBRA), requiring contractors to pay locally prevailing wages and fringe benefits as determined by the U.S. Department of Labor (including All Agency Memorandum No. 247).

Sources (2)
  • Union Membership and Coverage Database (unionstats.com) / Current Population Survey (CPS)
  • SMART Union / U.S. Department of Labor Wage and Hour Division (2024)

Licensing & credentials

States Requiring License5 research passes · high confidence37

Bonding Note. State contractor licensing boards typically require HVAC contractors to maintain commercial general liability insurance (commonly ranging from $300,000 to $500,000) and obtain surety bonds ranging from $2,500 to $25,000 depending on the license class and state (e.g., $3,000 in New Jersey, $10,000 in Alaska and South Carolina, $20,000 in Alabama, and $25,000 in California). Workers' compensation coverage is also required for businesses employing staff.

Reciprocity Note. HVAC license reciprocity is highly fragmented across the United States. No single federal license exists, but certain states enter into bilateral or regional reciprocity agreements (for example, between Alabama, Louisiana, Mississippi, Tennessee, and South Carolina). Furthermore, the National Association of State Contractors Licensing Agencies (NASCLA) accredited exams are accepted in 18 states to fulfill contractor exam requirements for participating licensing boards.

Sources (3)
  • Air Conditioning Contractors of America (ACCA) State Licensing Survey (
  • Next Insurance HVAC License Requirements Guide (2024)
  • National Association of State Contractors Licensing Agencies (NASCLA) Accredited Examination Guide (2025,

Market structure & size

Market size

Market Size4 research passes · medium$159.4B
Cagr1 research pass · medium6.9%
Cagr Forecast Window2026-2033
Sources (2)
  • IBISWorld, Heating & Air-Conditioning Contractors in the US, 2026
  • Trade Economy Index research synthesis: median of 1 cited research input: IBISWorld - Heating & Air-Conditioning Contractors in the US (2026)

Firm counts

Num Establishments6 research passes · official source109,601
Num Firms6 research passes · official source107,004
Avg Employees Per Firm6 research passes · official source10.999
Sources (2)
  • U.S. Census Bureau, Statistics of U.S. Businesses (SUSB)
  • Trade Economy Index research synthesis: median of 2 cited research inputs: U.S. Census Bureau, Statistics of U.S. Businesses (SUSB), 2022, | Calculated from U.S. Census Bureau, Statistics of U.S. Businesses (SUSB) employment and firm counts (https://www.census.gov/programs-surveys/susb.html

Fragmentation

Top4 Firm Share1 research pass · official source4.1%

Mom And Pop Share Note. According to IBISWorld and U.S. Census Bureau SUSB data for NAICS 238220, 59.1% of industry establishments employ 1 to 4 employees, and 88.85% of establishments (97,385 out of 109,601) employ fewer than 20 employees.

Sources (2)
  • U.S. Small Business Administration, 'Small Business Size Standards: Agriculture, Forestry, Fishing and Hunting; Mining, Quarrying, and Oil and Gas Extraction; Utilities; Construction', Proposed Rule, 85 FR 62239 (October 2, 2020), Table 4 'Size Standards Supported by Each Factor for Each Industry (Receipts)' at 85 FR 62248, column (6) headed 'Four-firm ratio (%)', row NAICS 238220 Plumbing, Heating, and Air-Conditioning Contractors. Derived by SBA from the U.S. Census Bureau special tabulation of the 2012 Economic Census.
  • IBISWorld Report 23822a () and U.S. Census Bureau Statistics of U.S. Businesses / CT Acquisitions 2022/2026 Analysis (https://ctacquisitions.com

Franchise penetration

Franchise Penetration4 research passes · medium0.69%
Sources (1)
  • IBISWorld, 'HVAC Service Franchises in the US' (OD5583) & 'Heating & Air-Conditioning Contractors in the US' (23822a), 2026

Business formation rate

Annual New Firm Formation5 research passes · limited support90,679
Annual Closure Rate5 research passes · limited support11.1%
Survival 5yr5 research passes · limited support49%
Sources (3)
  • U.S. Census Bureau, Business Dynamics Statistics (BDS) - Sector 23 Construction
  • U.S. Census Bureau, Business Dynamics Statistics (BDS) - 2023 Sector 23 Establishment Exit Rate
  • U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, Business Employment Dynamics (BED), NAICS 2382 Building Equipment Contractors (

Unit economics

Margins

Gross Margin6 research passes · high confidence21.01%
Operating Margin6 research passes · medium8.24%
Net Margin6 research passes · medium7.43%
Sources (2)
  • Comfort Systems USA, Inc. Form 10-K (FY 2024)
  • Trade Economy Index research synthesis: median of 3 cited research inputs: Comfort Systems USA, Inc. 2023 Form 10-K (filed Feb 22, 2024), (Cross-checked against EMCOR Group, Inc. 2023 Form 10-K operating margin of 7.0% https://www.sec.gov) | CFMA 2025 Construction Financial Benchmarker Executive Summary (2024 data, https://www.cfma.org); cross-checked with IBISWorld Industry Report 23822a: Heating & Air-Conditioning Contractors in the US (2024 operating profit margin 5.4%, https://www.ibisworld.com) and Comfort Systems USA, Inc. SEC Form 10-K (2023 operating margin 7.0%, https://www.sec.gov) | Construction Financial Management Association (CFMA) Construction Industry Annual Financial Survey / Benchmarker, https://cfma.org/benchmarker

Cost structure

Labor Pct Of Revenue5 research passes · limited support29.4
Materials Pct Of Revenue5 research passes · limited support41.7
Sga Overhead5 research passes · medium10.4%
Labor Pct Of Revenue Shared Across5
Materials Pct Of Revenue Shared Across6

Labor Pct Of Revenue Note. This figure is an industry-wide benchmark, not a per-trade measurement: the same value is published for 5 trade or segment records in this dataset. Read it as the specialty-trade baseline, not as a finding that distinguishes this trade from another.

Materials Pct Of Revenue Note. This figure is an industry-wide benchmark, not a per-trade measurement: the same value is published for 6 trade or segment records in this dataset. Read it as the specialty-trade baseline, not as a finding that distinguishes this trade from another.

Sources (2)
  • IBISWorld, Heating & Air-Conditioning Contractors in the US (Report 23822), 2019
  • Comfort Systems USA, Inc. Form 10-K for Fiscal Year Ended December 31, 2024, 2024

Productivity

Revenue Per Employee5 research passes · high confidence$253K
Gross Profit Per Labor Hour1 research pass · limited support$97.5
Billable Utilization3 research passes · limited support65%
Billable Utilization Pct Shared Across7

Billable Utilization Pct Note. This figure is an industry-wide benchmark, not a per-trade measurement: the same value is published for 7 trade or segment records in this dataset. Read it as the specialty-trade baseline, not as a finding that distinguishes this trade from another.

Sources (3)
  • U.S. Census Bureau, 2022 Economic Census (NAICS 238220: Plumbing, Heating, and Air-Conditioning Contractors)
  • Trade Economy Index estimate, triangulated across contractor productivity studies and Level CFO gross-profit-per-hour framing (); Level does not publish a trade-split HVAC GP/hour figure
  • Air Conditioning Contractors of America (ACCA) / Aquant 2025 Field Service Benchmark Report, 2025

Seasonality

Peak Period Note. HVAC equipment and contracting demand is highly seasonal, with peak revenue generated during the second and third calendar quarters (spring and summer) due to elevated air conditioning usage and warmer weather construction activity, while the first quarter is historically the lowest revenue period.

Cyclicality Note. HVAC contracting is subject to weather patterns and macroeconomic construction cycles; during recessionary periods, capital goods and building materials companies face average peak-to-trough revenue declines of approximately 8% to 18% driven by contractions in housing starts, nonresidential construction, and deferred discretionary upgrades.

Sources (2)
  • Comfort Systems USA, Inc., Form 10-K for the Fiscal Year Ended December 31, 2024 (filed February 20, 2025)
  • S&P Global Ratings, 'How Recession Risk Could Affect U.S. HVAC Manufacturers' (November 29, 2023)

Cash & working capital

Cash cycle

Dso Days2 research passes · limited support69.37 days
Dpo Days3 research passes · medium33 days
Cash Conversion Cycle Days2 research passes · verified48.36 days
Dpo Days Shared Across8

Dpo Days Note. This figure is an industry-wide benchmark, not a per-trade measurement: the same value is published for 8 trade or segment records in this dataset. Read it as the specialty-trade baseline, not as a finding that distinguishes this trade from another.

Sources (3)
  • Limbach Holdings, Inc. Form 10-K (2024)
  • EMCOR Group, Inc. Form 10-K / GuruFocus Financial Summary, 2024
  • Comfort Systems USA, Inc. Annual Report on Form 10-K for the Fiscal Year Ended December 31, 2025 (filed February 20, 2026)

Retainage & liens

Payment Dispute1 research pass · limited support23%
Sources (1)
  • Construction Financial Management Association (CFMA), CFMA Benchmarking Survey, 2025

Bad debt

Bad Debt Write Off6 research passes · medium0.1%
Collection Rate5 research passes · official source85.1%
Bad Debt Write Off Pct Shared Across5
Collection Rate Pct Shared Across23%

Bad Debt Write Off Pct Note. This figure is an industry-wide benchmark, not a per-trade measurement: the same value is published for 5 trade or segment records in this dataset. Read it as the specialty-trade baseline, not as a finding that distinguishes this trade from another.

Collection Rate Pct Note. This figure is an industry-wide benchmark, not a per-trade measurement: the same value is published for 23 trade or segment records in this dataset. Read it as the specialty-trade baseline, not as a finding that distinguishes this trade from another.

Sources (2)
  • Comfort Systems USA, Inc., Form 10-K for the Fiscal Year Ended December 31, 2024
  • Level CFO, The State of Contractor Finance (CFMA and SEC benchmark analysis), 2024

AI exposure & technology

AI task exposure

Pct Physical Onsite Work5 research passes · medium72.2
Pct Cognitive Backoffice Work5 research passes · medium27.8

Task Breakdown Note. HVAC/R work time is divided between hands-on physical on-site labor (installing, brazing, piping, connecting electrical components, and replacing defective mechanical parts) and cognitive/coordination tasks (testing electrical circuits, interpreting blueprints/schematics, running diagnostic software, conferring with customers, calculating energy loads, scheduling, and logging work orders).

Ai Resistant Work. Physical on-site trade work remains highly resistant to AI and automation due to its complex tactile requirements, non-standardized working environments, and custom physical building constraints. Core AI-resistant tasks include: physical equipment installation and system retrofits (mounting outdoor air-handler units, running copper refrigerant lines, fitting sheet metal ductwork, and line-brazing/soldering); emergency hands-on troubleshooting and mechanical repairs; manual diagnostics in tight or hazardous spaces (attics, crawlspaces, and commercial rooftops); and regulated physical operations such as EPA Section 608-compliant refrigerant recovery, pressure leak testing, and vacuum evacuation. These tasks demand physical spatial reasoning, manual dexterity, adaptive problem-solving, and specialized physical trade skills that software algorithms cannot execute.limited support

Automatable Work. Back-office administration, customer coordination, estimating, and scheduling in HVAC & Refrigeration are highly automatable through AI and Field Service Management (FSM) platforms. Key automatable functions include: (1) Customer Call Handling & Scheduling: 24/7 AI voice and chat agents that answer customer calls, handle emergency routing, and dynamically book appointments into CRMs; (2) Dispatching & Route Optimization: automated scheduling based on technician location, traffic, skill levels, and job priority; (3) Estimating & Follow-ups: AI-driven bid/quote generation and automated sales follow-up workflows for unsold estimates; (4) Compliance & Recordkeeping: automated EPA refrigerant tracking, invoice processing, and recordkeeping (saving technicians manual paperwork); and (5) Real-Time Field Knowledge: AI knowledge-base assistants providing instant access to equipment manuals, error codes, and historical job logs.limited support

Sources (3)
  • Accenture Research and Atlanta Regional Commission (2020), 'Automation Potential by Occupation: SOC 49-9021 Heating, Air Conditioning, and Refrigeration Mechanics and Installers'
  • O*NET OnLine - 49-9021.00 - Heating, Air Conditioning, and Refrigeration Mechanics and Installers (2026)
  • Air Conditioning Contractors of America (ACCA), 2025, | ACHR NEWS / Podium & UpSmith Case Study, 2026, https://www.achrnews.com/articles/154406-how-contractors-are-navigating-the-ai-landscape

Field-service software

Fsm Adoption3 research passes · medium64%
Dominant Fsm SoftwareServiceTitan
Sources (2)
  • Business Research Insights, 2026
  • Business Research Insights, 2026

Accounting technology

Common Accounting Software. QuickBooks, Sage (including Sage 100 Contractor, Sage 300 CRE, and Sage Intacct), and Viewpoint are the dominant accounting systems used by HVAC and specialty trade contractors. QuickBooks is the most widely adopted platform among small-to-midsize trade contractors (holding a 62.23% share of the small-business accounting market, with construction as its top vertical at 17.22% of users), while Sage is the leading accounting/ERP system for mid-market and enterprise specialty contractors (cited by 21.3% of surveyed contractors).

Integration Gap Note. A major field-to-accounting integration gap exists across trade contractors. JBKnowledge documents that 51% of contractors manually transfer data between software applications due to a lack of integration, and 30% of firms operate with no software integration at all. When field operations apps fail to connect with accounting software, 49% to 51.8% of contractors rely on manual re-entry and 44% use spreadsheets to transfer field data into office accounting systems.

Sources (2)
  • JBKnowledge 10th Annual Construction Technology Report (2021), Business Dasher / Enlyft Accounting Market Share Report (2024), https://businessdasher.com
  • JBKnowledge 10th Annual Construction Technology Report (2021)

AI adoption

Adoption Examples. Documented industry research and contractor case studies reflect growing AI adoption: (1) ServiceTitan's 2026 State of AI in the Trades study (surveying over 1,000 contractors) found that while 12% have fully embedded AI into daily operations and 34% are actively experimenting, 62% of AI users report measurable productivity gains saving 3+ hours per week; (2) A 2026 survey of 600+ commercial HVAC contractors showed 43% use AI for jobsite search and chat assistance, 40% for automated compliance tracking, and 38% for recordkeeping, with apprentices 23% more likely to rely on AI for estimating than senior technicians; (3) At the ACCA 2025 conference, contractors showcased platforms like RILLA (voice AI analyzing technician customer interactions for automated sales coaching) and UpSmith/Podium integrated at Virginia contractor Leonard Splaine Co., which automated estimate follow-ups and increased closed sales on unsold estimates by 25%.limited support

Sources (1)
  • Air Conditioning Contractors of America (ACCA), 2025, | ACHR NEWS / Podium & UpSmith Case Study, 2026, https://www.achrnews.com/articles/154406-how-contractors-are-navigating-the-ai-landscape

Channel & disintermediation

Lead-gen platforms

Marketplace Penetration4 research passes · limited support1.5%
Platform Take Rate5 research passes · medium10%
Marketplace Penetration Pct Shared Across11
Platform Take Rate Pct Shared Across13%

Platforms Note. Lead-generation platforms for HVAC and trade contractors (including Angi, HomeAdvisor, and Thumbtack) monetize primarily through pay-per-lead and subscription models. Shared HVAC leads range from $15 to $40 for service calls and $30 to $80 for installations on Angi/HomeAdvisor, and $20 to $80 on Thumbtack, compared to $45 to $85 per lead on Google Local Services Ads. Because shared leads are dispatched to 3-5 competing contractors, conversion rates range between 15% and 20%, bringing the true acquisition cost per booked HVAC job to $200-$600+.

Marketplace Penetration Pct Note. This figure is an industry-wide benchmark, not a per-trade measurement: the same value is published for 11 trade or segment records in this dataset. Read it as the specialty-trade baseline, not as a finding that distinguishes this trade from another.

Platform Take Rate Pct Note. This figure is an industry-wide benchmark, not a per-trade measurement: the same value is published for 13 trade or segment records in this dataset. Read it as the specialty-trade baseline, not as a finding that distinguishes this trade from another.

Sources (2)
  • Angi Inc., Q1 2026 Shareholder Letter & Earnings Call (2026)
  • PipelineOn Contractor Marketing Benchmark Study (2026), Auto-Respond HVAC Lead Cost Benchmark (2026), https://auto-respond.com

Customer-acquisition mix

Pct Referral1 research pass · limited support67
Pct Repeat1 research pass · limited support73
Sources (1)
  • The ACHR NEWS / BNP Media Clear Seas Research Survey (2024) -

Insurance & warranty

Home Warranty Penetration5 research passes · medium6%
Home Warranty Penetration Pct Shared Across6

Intermediation Note. Home warranty providers intermediate the contractor-customer relationship by controlling customer lead distribution, dispatching claims directly to a pre-qualified contractor network (which completes approximately 84% of Frontdoor's service requests), establishing capped service rates, and controlling repair-versus-replacement coverage decisions, making the warranty platform the primary interface for homeowners rather than the independent HVAC contractor.

Home Warranty Penetration Pct Note. This figure is an industry-wide benchmark, not a per-trade measurement: the same value is published for 6 trade or segment records in this dataset. Read it as the specialty-trade baseline, not as a finding that distinguishes this trade from another.

Sources (2)
  • Frontdoor, Inc., Form 10-K for the Fiscal Year Ended December 31, 2024 (2025)
  • Frontdoor, Inc., Form 10-K for the Fiscal Year Ended December 31, 2025 (2026), The ACHR NEWS, 'Growing Through Home Warranty and Insurance Work' (2020), https://www.achrnews.com/articles/142907-growing-through-home-warranty-and-insurance-work

Lock-in & expansion

Recurring-revenue mix

Recurring Revenue5 research passes · verified18%
Service Agreement Attach3 research passes · medium25%

Recurring Note. Recurring service agreements capture 55% of overall HVAC service industry revenue, and contractors maintaining 40%+ recurring maintenance revenue command premium transaction multiples of 6x to 10x EBITDA compared to 2x to 4x for demand-only shops.

Sources (3)
  • IBISWorld, Heating & Air-Conditioning Contractors in the US, 2025 (via Sequoia GEO: )
  • Air Conditioning Contractors of America (ACCA, 2025)
  • CT Acquisitions Industry Analysis (2026), URL:

Contract terms

Typical Contract Length Months5 research passes · high confidence12
Renewal Rate5 research passes · high confidence83%
Typical Contract Length Months Shared Across8

Stickiness Note. Ongoing maintenance and service agreements establish direct-to-owner relationships that lock in repeat business, smooth out seasonal cash flow fluctuations, and generate predictable downstream repair and replacement opportunities.

Typical Contract Length Months Note. This figure is an industry-wide benchmark, not a per-trade measurement: the same value is published for 8 trade or segment records in this dataset. Read it as the specialty-trade baseline, not as a finding that distinguishes this trade from another.

Sources (2)
  • Comfort Systems USA, Inc. Form 10-K (2025)
  • ACHR News (2023)

Cross-sell & expansion

Avg Services Per Customer3 research passes · high confidence0.65

Cross Sell Note. Expanding into adjacent trades (combining HVAC, plumbing, and electrical) allows service providers to increase customer wallet share and reduce customer acquisition costs. Multi-trade platform operations command a 15-20% valuation multiple premium (trading at 6.5x-7.0x+ EBITDA) compared to single-trade operators.

Sources (2)
  • Gray, Gray & Gray 33rd Annual Energy Industry Survey (2024) cross-checked with Angus Energy Industry Research (2024) https://www.angusenergy.com
  • Western Companies HVAC & Plumbing Services M&A Report (2026) cross-checked with CT Acquisitions Home Services M&A Benchmark Report (2026) https://ctacquisitions.com

Entry barriers & data

Capital intensity

Startup Cost5 research passes · medium$193K
Capex Pct Of Revenue5 research passes · high confidence0.9

Equipment Note. HVAC contractors exhibit low overall capital intensity. Capital expenses are predominantly tied to purchasing or leasing service vehicles/trucks, inventory storage facilities, and basic diagnostic hand tools. Little to no heavy equipment is purchased permanently, as specialized or heavy equipment is typically rented on a job-by-job basis.

Sources (3)
  • Aire Serv SPV LLC 2025 Franchise Disclosure Document (Item 7 Estimated Initial Investment Range Midpoint of $113,808.50 to $271,708.50), 2025
  • IBISWorld Industry Report 23822a: Heating & Air-Conditioning Contractors in the US (Capital Investment / Depreciation as % of Revenue), 2024
  • IBISWorld Industry Report 23822a: Heating & Air-Conditioning Contractors in the US, 2024

Regulatory burden

Permit Burden Note. HVAC and refrigeration contractors face multi-layered compliance requirements spanning federal, model code, and local jurisdictions. Under EPA Clean Air Act Section 608 regulations (40 CFR Part 82, Subpart F), any technician maintaining, servicing, repairing, or disposing of equipment that could release regulated refrigerants must hold an EPA Section 608 certification (Types I, II, III, or Universal), with noncompliance subject to federal civil penalties up to $59,114 per incident per day. At the local level, mechanical equipment installations and replacements require building permits and inspections to enforce model codes like the International Code Council's (ICC) International Mechanical Code (IMC) and International Energy Conservation Code (IECC), which frequently mandate ACCA Manual J load calculation documentation for final permit sign-off.

Compliance Cost Note. Compliance costs for HVAC/R operators are driven by federal equipment transition and leak management rules under the American Innovation and Manufacturing (AIM) Act. In May 2026, the EPA finalized a Technology Transitions Reconsideration Rule that extended installation deadlines and adjusted interim GWP limits for sectors like supermarket refrigeration and air conditioning, projecting $976 million in engineering cost relief to prevent price inflation. However, under the EPA's Emissions Reduction and Reclamation (ER&R) program (finalized under 40 CFR Part 84), operators face direct compliance costs starting in 2026 for automatic leak detection (ALD) installations on systems containing 1,500+ lbs of refrigerant and mandatory leak repairs for systems containing 15+ lbs of regulated refrigerants exceeding statutory annual leak rate thresholds (10% to 30% depending on equipment category).

Regulatory Tailwind Note. Regulatory mandates and efficiency standards serve as major demand drivers accelerating equipment replacements and technology upgrades across the HVAC/R sector. Under the Department of Energy's (DOE) Appliance and Equipment Standards Program (10 CFR Part 430), updated SEER2, EER2, and HSPF2 efficiency standards utilizing M1 pressure-testing procedures increased minimum efficiency floors by 8-10%, requiring new residential and light commercial equipment to meet strict regional performance criteria. Simultaneously, the EPA AIM Act's mandated phasedown of high-GWP hydrofluorocarbon (HFC) refrigerants (targeting an 85% reduction by 2036) and sector-based Technology Transitions rules restrict legacy refrigerants like R-410A, driving industry-wide equipment replacement cycles toward next-generation low-GWP systems (such as A2L refrigerants) and high-efficiency heat pumps.

Sources (3)
  • U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) & International Code Council (ICC), 2026
  • U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA), 2026
  • U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) & U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA), 2026

Data assets

Iot Telemetry Penetration1 research pass · medium41.3%
Sources (1)
  • Trade Economy Index research synthesis: median of 1 cited research input: The ACHR NEWS / Decision Analyst 2025 American Home Comfort Study, 2026

M&A, PE & valuation

Consolidation

Consolidation Activity. The US HVAC & Refrigeration trade is experiencing high-intensity private equity (PE) consolidation and roll-up activity across both residential and commercial/industrial segments. Capstone Partners' July 2026 HVAC Services Sector Update reported steady deal flow with 92 transactions YTD 2026, dominated by PE add-on acquisitions (comprising 41.3% of total deals, with 38 add-on transactions). This follows Capstone's tracking of 149 HVAC service transactions in 2025 (a 12.9% YoY increase). PitchBook's Q2 2025 Analyst Note reported a record 55 PE-closed HVAC deals in 2024 (a 72% YoY surge from 2023). S&P Global Market Intelligence (October 2025) highlighted that global PE add-on transactions targeting HVAC service providers surged 88% YoY through mid-2025. Valuations remain elevated, with PE Hub (March 2026) reporting scaled residential HVAC roll-up platforms trading at 16x-19x EBITDA and commercial/industrial HVAC/R platforms trading at 10x-17x EBITDA.

Notable Platforms. Prominent PE-backed platforms driving HVAC & Refrigeration roll-up consolidation include: (1) Apex Service Partners (Alpine Investors / Apollo Global Management; Apollo made a strategic investment at a ~$10B EV in May 2026, with Apex closing ~60 add-ons in 2025 alone); (2) CoolSys (Ares Management; commercial and industrial refrigeration and HVAC platform with over 10 add-on acquisitions); (3) Wrench Group (Leonard Green & Partners; national home services platform combining residential HVAC, plumbing, and electrical providers); (4) Sila Services (Goldman Sachs Alternatives; $1.5B platform deal, acquiring over 35 regional HVAC brands); (5) Service Champions / Champions Group (acquired by Blackstone at a $2.5B EV / 18.5x EBITDA); and (6) Nextech (Audax Private Equity; commercial HVAC/R service platform across 40+ locations).

Sources (7)
  • Capstone Partners (2026); PitchBook Data (2025, ); S&P Global Market Intelligence (2025, https://www.spglobal.com/marketintelligence/); PE Hub (2026, https://www.pehub.com/
  • PE Hub (2026, ); PitchBook Data (2025, https://pitchbook.com/news/reports/q2-2025-pitchbook-analyst-note-clearing-the-air-on-hvac); Capstone Partners (2026, https://www.capstonepartners.com/
  • Capstone Partners - HVAC Services Sector Update (2026):
  • PitchBook Data - Analyst Note: Clearing the Air on HVAC (2025):
  • PE Hub - PE Firms Readying HVAC Companies for Sale (2026):
  • S&P Global Market Intelligence - Private Equity Add-Ons Drive HVAC Deals (2025):
  • Capstone Partners - HVAC Services Sector Update (2025):

Valuation multiples

Typical Ebitda Multiple Low3 research passes · medium3.4x
Typical Ebitda Multiple High4 research passes · high confidence10.9x

Multiple By Size Note. HVAC multiples scale significantly by company size and earnings tier: small tuck-ins and sub-$1M EBITDA operators trade at 3.0x-5.0x EBITDA; established contractors with $1M-$3M EBITDA range from 5.0x-7.5x EBITDA; multi-location platforms with $3M-$10M EBITDA command 7.0x-10.0x EBITDA; and large platform-grade businesses with $10M+ EBITDA achieve 9.0x-13.0x+ EBITDA.

Sources (3)
  • Trade Economy Index research synthesis: median of 2 cited research inputs: First Page Sage 'HVAC EBITDA & Valuation Multiples Report', 2025, | Axial, 'HVAC Business Valuation Multiples' (2025
  • Trade Economy Index research synthesis: median of 2 cited research inputs: First Page Sage, 'HVAC EBITDA & Valuation Multiples - 2025 Report' (2025), | Capstone Partners, 'HVAC Services M&A Update' (2026
  • PKF O'Connor Davies 'Summer 2025 HVAC M&A Industry Update', 2025, and Breakwater M&A 'HVAC Valuation & M&A Guide', 2026, https://www.breakwaterma.com

Exit environment

Buyer Demand. Current buyer demand for US HVAC & Refrigeration businesses is strong and heavily dominated by private equity (PE) buy-and-build rollups as well as strategic consolidators. PE firms and portfolio platform add-ons account for over 50% of total industry transactions. Buyers value most: (1) recurring service and annual maintenance contract revenue, which provides predictable cash flows; (2) strong technician recruitment and workforce retention capabilities; (3) geographic branch density within target metros; and (4) high-demand specialized services such as industrial refrigeration, data center thermal management, and multi-trade service bundling (HVAC combined with plumbing and electrical).

Exit Trend. The exit trend is heating up, with M&A deal volume exhibiting robust growth and outperforming the broader industrial market. Announced and completed HVAC services transactions reached 149 in 2025, representing a 12.9% year-over-year increase. While valuation multiples have normalized from peak pandemic spikes to average around 9.5x EV/EBITDA (2.0x EV/Revenue) for mid-market transactions and 2.5x-5.0x SDE for smaller Main Street businesses, total deal flow remains elevated due to market fragmentation and an aging installed base of systems requiring replacement.

Sources (6)
  • Capstone Partners HVAC Services Sector Update (2025, ) and PitchBook / Main Street Wealth HVAC Private Equity Analyst Note (2025, https://mainstreetwealth.ai
  • Capstone Partners HVAC Services M&A Sector Update (2025, ) and BizBuySell HVAC Business Transaction Trends (2025, https://www.bizbuysell.com
  • https://www.capstonepartners.com
  • https://www.bizbuysell.com
  • https://mainstreetwealth.ai
  • https://www.sfpadvisors.com

Demand & growth

Demand drivers

Installed Base Units5 research passes · medium130,000,000

Replacement Vs New Note. Residential HVAC demand is primarily driven by service and equipment replacement rather than new construction. Replacement and retrofit activity historically accounts for roughly 75% to 80% of residential HVAC demand (approximately 8 million units per year), while new construction represents approximately 20% to 25% (1 to 1.5 million units per year).

Demand Drivers Note. Primary demand drivers for the US HVAC trade include: 1) aging installed equipment reaching end-of-life (~10-15 year lifecycle), 2) seasonal weather conditions and temperature extremes, 3) existing home sales and disposable income, 4) regulatory shifts including regional SEER2 efficiency minimums and low-GWP refrigerant transitions (e.g., R-454B/R-32 mandates), 5) federal/state heat pump electrification incentives (e.g., Inflation Reduction Act), and 6) commercial construction and data center buildouts.

Sources (3)
  • Carrier Global / ACHR News (2026)
  • HARDI / ACHR News (2026)
  • IBISWorld (2026)

Macro correlation

Housing Correlation Note. Residential HVAC demand is driven by both new construction (housing starts) and residential market turnover/renovations. Data from the U.S. Census Bureau indicates that housing starts directly generate new HVAC installations upon building completion. Additionally, Federal Reserve Board research on the home purchase channel demonstrates that housing turnover and home purchases have a strong positive correlation (0.69) with home-related expenditures, including HVAC replacements and major home renovations, while FRED series TLRESCONS tracks overall residential construction spending.

Commercial Correlation Note. Commercial HVAC equipment demand (such as chillers, rooftop units, and air handlers) correlates with nonresidential and commercial construction spending. According to the U.S. Census Bureau Value of Construction Put in Place (C30 Release) and FRED series TLCOMCONS, commercial construction spending measures multi-quarter value put-in-place across office, lodging, and retail sectors, where HVAC system installation directly tracks construction progress and project fit-out schedules.

Climate Sensitivity Note. HVAC demand and space heating/cooling energy usage are highly climate- and weather-sensitive, as captured by Cooling Degree Days (CDDs) and Heating Degree Days (HDDs). NOAA's Residential Energy Demand Temperature Index (REDTI) documents that household energy consumption has a correlation as high as 0.97 with heating degree days at the household level and seasonal correlations up to 0.86 nationally. Studies published via ACEEE further show that electricity demand for space cooling scales non-linearly with CDDs at an exponent of 1.5, confirming high sensitivity to temperature fluctuations.

Sources (3)
  • U.S. Census Bureau, 'New Residential Construction' (2026), ; Federal Reserve Board, 'The Home Purchase Channel of Expenditure' (2025), https://www.federalreserve.gov/econres/feds/2025.htm ; Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis FRED, 'Total Construction Spending: Residential (TLRESCONS)' (2026), https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/TLRESCONS
  • U.S. Census Bureau, 'Value of Construction Put in Place' (2026), ; Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis FRED, 'Total Construction Spending: Commercial in the United States (TLCOMCONS)' (2026)
  • NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, 'Residential Energy Demand Temperature Index (REDTI)' (2026), ; American Council for an Energy-Efficient Economy (ACEEE), 'Linking Climate Change and Energy Demand' (2020), https://www.aceee.org ; U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA), 'Climate Change Indicators: Heating and Cooling Degree Days' (2020

Search interest

Yoy Search Change1 research pass · medium23%
Yoy Search Change Pct Shared Across4

Yoy Search Change Pct Note. This figure is an industry-wide benchmark, not a per-trade measurement: the same value is published for 4 trade or segment records in this dataset. Read it as the specialty-trade baseline, not as a finding that distinguishes this trade from another.

Sources (1)
  • Trade Economy Index research synthesis: median of 1 cited research input: Vrid.ai (2026

Reputation & customer

Customer acquisition

Typical Cac5 research passes · medium$296
Avg Review Volume5 research passes · medium21

Complaint Categories. Slowness/unresponsiveness, service or repair issues, product/equipment issues, billing disputes, and aggressive sales/advertising practices (such as upselling and bait-and-switch tactics).

Sources (3)
  • Leads4Build, 'The Complete 2025 HVAC Industry Report', 2025, (cross-checked against PipelineOn, 'HVAC Customer Acquisition Cost Benchmarks', 2026, https://pipelineon.com
  • ACHR News, 'Maximize Your HVAC Business's Visibility with Google Business Profile', 2024, (cross-checked against YDOP Google My Business Industry Study, 2020, https://www.ydop.com
  • Better Business Bureau (BBB) Industry Report (2023)

Segment economics

How the unit economics differ by end market. Commercial and industrial work typically carries different margin, cash-cycle, and utilization profiles than residential. Published figures retain their citations.

MetricResidentialCommercialIndustrial
Gross margin22.4%3 research passes · high confidence21.01%3 research passes · high confidence21.01%3 research passes · medium
Operating margin5.4%3 research passes · verified10.66%3 research passes · medium7.1%3 research passes · verified
Net marginn/a7.4%3 research passes · high confidencen/a
Revenue / employee$253K3 research passes · limited support$253K3 research passes · limited support$321K3 research passes · verified
Gross profit / labor hour$751 research pass · limited supportn/a$1501 research pass · limited support
Billable utilization65%2 research passes · medium65%2 research passes · limited support70%2 research passes · medium
Cash conversion cycle20 days2 research passes · verified72.9 days3 research passes · medium58 days1 research pass · limited support
Days sales outstanding56.6 days1 research pass · medium96.67 days3 research passes · high confidence73.8 days2 research passes · limited support
Labor % of revenue29.4%3 research passes · official source29.4%3 research passes · limited support29.4%3 research passes · limited support

Unit economics by revenue band

The same trade runs very different numbers at $500K than at $30M. Here are the operating benchmarks by annual-revenue band. Every cell shown carries an external, citable source (CFMA revenue-tier benchmarks, IBISWorld). Blank cells are metrics no public source splits by band.

MetricUnder $1M$1M to $5M$5M to $20MOver $20M
Gross margin22.4%limited support22.4%limited support45%high confidence18%medium
Collection raten/an/a85.1%mediumn/a
Days sales outstanding83 dayslimited support45 dayslimited support56.6 daysmedium57 dayslimited support
Recurring revenue10%limited support20%medium55%limited support40%high confidence

Market structure

National permit and contractor-density aggregates from public county tax-assessor and building-permit records. Aggregate-only; no individual property or business identified.

Building permits (national)

YearPermitsContractorsMedian job valueP90 job value
20221,401,31868,514$8K$251K
20231,539,13266,512$10K$305K
20241,002,15760,530$11K$299K

Contractor size tiers

Size tierContractorsAvg total permit value
Micro (5-19)42,614$2.64M
Small (20-99)20,064$8.46M
Mid (100-499)5,216$33.89M
Large (500+)1,086$202.42M

Top states by permit volume

StatePermitsContractorsMedian job value
FL784,43123,472$7K
CA356,62620,452$8K
TX277,11712,364$13K
NC275,76112,494$13K
OR236,3654,738$9K
CO194,8504,486$9K
WA160,7254,778$18K
GA131,8562,953$13K
OH125,7244,580$31K
MN120,3933,059$12K

Geography

Wage differentials and licensing/bonding regimes vary widely by state, and contractor density and permit trends by metro. Every figure carries its state or metro source (BLS/OEWS, licensing boards, permit records). Aggregate-only.

Wages by state (median hourly)

Ranked high to low. Differential vs the national median. Source: state BLS/OEWS.

StateMedian hourlyvs national
Alaska$36.24+26.05%
Massachusetts$35.43+23.23%
Hawaii$32.53+13.15%
Minnesota$31.64+10.05%
Illinois$31.21+8.56%
Washington$31.17+8.42%
Connecticut$31.15+8.35%
New York$30.94+7.62%
North Dakota$30.30+5.39%
Maryland$30.09+4.66%
Rhode Island$29.93+4.1%
California$29.92+4.07%
New Jersey$29.78+3.58%
Oregon$29.73+3.41%
Colorado$29.48+2.54%
New Hampshire$29.42+2.33%
Delaware$29.11+1.25%
Wisconsin$28.62-0.45%
Indiana$28.54-0.73%
Iowa$28.37-1.32%
Nevada$28.19-1.95%
Pennsylvania$28.00-2.61%
Virginia$27.94-2.82%
Missouri$27.82-3.23%
Maine$27.48-4.42%
Ohio$27.39-4.73%
Vermont$27.32-4.97%
Georgia$27.11-5.7%
Nebraska$26.57-7.58%
South Dakota$26.20-8.87%
Louisiana$25.80-10.26%
Wyoming$25.44-11.51%
Montana$24.95-13.22%
Kansas$24.87-13.5%
Michigan$24.55-14.61%
North Carolina$24.33-15.37%
Kentucky$24.30-15.48%
Texas$24.13-16.07%
South Carolina$24.00-16.52%
Utah$23.97-16.63%
Arizona$23.86-17.01%
Florida$23.66-17.7%
Oklahoma$23.45-18.43%
Tennessee$23.10-19.65%
Arkansas$22.90-20.35%
Idaho$22.84-20.56%
Alabama$22.62-21.32%
New Mexico$22.24-22.64%
West Virginia$22.16-22.92%
Mississippi$22.09-23.17%
Metro-level detail (50 metros)
Atlanta, GA

In the Atlanta-Sandy Springs-Roswell, GA metropolitan statistical area, there were 6,610 employed Heating, Air Conditioning, and Refrigeration Mechanics and Installers (SOC 49-9021), representing a location quotient of 0.90 and an annual mean wage of $57,650.

Residential building permit activity across the 11-county Atlanta region decreased 21% in 2023 to 28,595 permits (a drop of nearly 7,500 permits compared to 2022). Construction activity stabilized and rebounded through 2024-2026, with the region recording steady month-over-month gains up to 2,289 total units permitted in March 2026.

Austin, TX

In May 2023, the Austin-Round Rock, TX MSA employed approximately 2,860 Heating, Air Conditioning, and Refrigeration Mechanics and Installers (SOC 49-9021), with an occupational location quotient of 0.89 relative to the national average and a mean hourly wage of $26.92.

Residential building permit volume in the Austin-Round Rock-Georgetown MSA declined from a peak of 50,772 permitted housing units in 2021 down to 38,773 units in 2023, representing a decrease of approximately 23.6% as regional homebuilding moderated from post-pandemic highs.

Baltimore, MD

In the Baltimore-Columbia-Towson, MD Metropolitan Statistical Area, there are 3,060 Heating, Air Conditioning, and Refrigeration Mechanics and Installers employed, representing a density of 2.344 jobs per 1,000 total jobs in the metro (location quotient of 0.90).

Total new residential units permitted in the Baltimore region fell 10.4% year-over-year to 5,775 units in 2025, while the value of residential alterations, additions, and repairs (AAR) grew 5.1% to $796.6 million.

Birmingham, AL

According to the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics May 2023 Occupational Employment and Wage Statistics, there are 1,760 Heating, Air Conditioning, and Refrigeration Mechanics and Installers (SOC 49-9021) employed in the Birmingham-Hoover, AL MSA, representing 3.45 workers per 1,000 jobs and a location quotient of 1.32.

According to the U.S. Census Bureau Building Permits Survey, residential construction activity in the Birmingham-Hoover, AL MSA reached 4,384 total units over the trailing 12-month period (3.71 permits per 1,000 residents), reflecting a 59.7% year-over-year increase in permit volume, led by single-family developments in Jefferson and Shelby counties.

Boston, MA

The Boston-Cambridge-Newton, MA-NH metropolitan area employs approximately 6,050 Heating, Air Conditioning, and Refrigeration Mechanics and Installers (SOC 49-9021).

Residential building permits in Greater Boston have dropped significantly from 15,019 units authorized in 2021 to under 9,000 units in 2024, with Boston proper recording 2,219 permitted units in 2024, its lowest annual permit volume since 2012.

Buffalo, NY

According to the Bureau of Labor Statistics OEWS (May 2023), the Buffalo-Cheektowaga-Niagara Falls, NY MSA had 1,050 employed Heating, Air Conditioning, and Refrigeration Mechanics and Installers (SOC 49-9021), representing a location quotient of 0.76 and a mean hourly wage of $28.18.

According to HUD's Comprehensive Housing Market Analysis, residential building permit activity in the Buffalo-Cheektowaga-Niagara Falls MSA reached 2,659 units for the 12 months ending July 2024, up from 2,558 units in the 12 months ending July 2023 and 2,101 units in full-year 2023.

Charlotte, NC

In the Charlotte-Concord-Gastonia, NC-SC Metropolitan Statistical Area, there are 3,900 employed Heating, Air Conditioning, and Refrigeration Mechanics and Installers (SOC 49-9021) with a location quotient of 1.14, reflecting a trade density 14% higher than the national average.

Residential building permit volume for private housing structures in the Charlotte-Concord-Gastonia MSA experienced a moderate pullback in single-family permitting activity (declining roughly 6.9% statewide in NC) under elevated interest rates, following peak permit issuance levels achieved during 2021-2022.

Chicago, IL

According to the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics Occupational Employment and Wage Statistics (OEWS), the Chicago-Naperville-Elgin, IL-IN-WI metropolitan statistical area employed 7,840 Heating, Air Conditioning, and Refrigeration Mechanics and Installers (SOC 49-9021) as of May 2023, representing an employment density of 1.74 HVAC technicians per 1,000 jobs in the metro area.

New residential building permit volume in the Chicago-Naperville-Elgin MSA dropped from 17,360 authorized units in 2022 to 15,028 authorized units in 2023, representing a year-over-year decline of approximately 13.4%.

Cincinnati, OH

According to the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics May 2023 Occupational Employment and Wage Statistics (OEWS), the Cincinnati, OH-KY-IN metropolitan area employed approximately 3,400 Heating, Air Conditioning, and Refrigeration Mechanics and Installers (SOC 49-9021), representing a density of 3.145 workers per 1,000 total regional jobs and a location quotient of 1.20.

According to HUD's Housing Market Conditions analysis and Census Building Permits Survey data, residential construction permitting in the Cincinnati MSA saw a peak in 2021 with single-family permitting reaching 5,775 units (12-month period ending August 2021). Single-family construction subsequently moderated to 3,925 units for the 12 months ending August 2024 before increasing to 4,250 units for the 12 months ending August 2025, while multi-family permitting stabilized at around 2,525 to 2,650 units annually.

Cleveland, OH

According to the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics May 2023 OEWS data, the Cleveland-Elyria, OH MSA employs 2,800 Heating, Air Conditioning, and Refrigeration Mechanics and Installers (SOC 49-9021), yielding a location quotient of 1.07 relative to the national employment concentration.

Residential building permit activity in the Cleveland-Elyria MSA expanded significantly over recent years, reaching 4,175 total permits over a trailing 12-month period (a 28.6% year-over-year surge). Permitting growth was led by Cuyahoga County (1,601 permits, up 43.2% YoY) and Lorain County (1,183 permits, up 33.4% YoY).

Columbus, OH

In the Columbus, OH MSA, there were 2,660 employed Heating, Air Conditioning, and Refrigeration Mechanics and Installers (SOC 49-9021), representing a density of 2.49 workers per 1,000 total jobs and a location quotient of 0.95 relative to the national average.

Residential building permitting in the Columbus, OH MSA experienced a strong expansion, pulling over 13,700 to 16,000 permits in recent 12-month periods (a YoY surge of over 60%), driven by intense single-family and multifamily construction.

Dallas-Fort Worth, TX

According to Census Bureau County Business Patterns (CBP) data, there were 1,815 Plumbing, Heating, and Air-Conditioning Contracting establishments (NAICS 238220) in the Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington, TX MSA. Additionally, BLS OEWS reports 10,060 Heating, Air Conditioning, and Refrigeration Mechanics and Installers (SOC 49-9021) employed in the metro area with a location quotient of 0.97.

The Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington MSA led all U.S. metropolitan areas in residential construction activity, pulling 63,775 building permits over trailing 12-month periods, a 13.2% year-over-year increase and roughly 8.17 permits per 1,000 residents.

Denver, CO

The Denver-Aurora-Lakewood, CO metropolitan statistical area employed 3,870 Heating, Air Conditioning, and Refrigeration Mechanics and Installers (SOC 49-9021) with a location quotient of 0.93 relative to the national concentration.

Residential permitting and building activity in the Denver metro area experienced a slowdown, with for-sale home permitting in Denver County declining 34% to 1,175 units for the 12 months ending August 2023 compared to the prior 12-month period due to rising interest rates and geographical constraints.

Detroit, MI

The Detroit-Warren-Dearborn, MI metropolitan statistical area employs approximately 4,010 Heating, Air Conditioning, and Refrigeration Mechanics and Installers (SOC 49-9021), representing a labor density of approximately 0.91 HVAC technicians per 1,000 residents.

Residential construction permit volume in the Detroit-Warren-Dearborn MSA reached 8,825 total housing units authorized over the trailing 12 months ending May 2026, down slightly by 2.3% compared to the prior 12-month period.

Hartford, CT

According to the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics May 2023 OEWS data, there were 1,780 Heating, Air Conditioning, and Refrigeration Mechanics and Installers (SOC 49-9021) employed in the Hartford-West Hartford-East Hartford, CT MSA, representing an employment density of 3.16 per 1,000 total jobs and a location quotient of 1.21.

Residential building permit activity in the Hartford-West Hartford-East Hartford MSA has fluctuated between 1,000 and 1,500 units annually over recent years. Multifamily permitting experienced a strong upward surge in 2024, reaching 1,488 units (an 89.2% increase year-over-year), with trailing 12-month totals standing at 1,270 permitted units as of mid-2026.

Houston, TX

According to the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics May 2023 Occupational Employment and Wage Statistics (OEWS), the Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX MSA employed 7,230 Heating, Air Conditioning, and Refrigeration Mechanics and Installers (SOC 49-9021), representing a density of 2.27 HVAC workers per 1,000 jobs in the metro area.

U.S. Census Bureau Building Permits Survey data show that the Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land MSA led the nation in residential permitting volume in 2023 with 68,755 total units authorized (including 50,444 single-family homes). Although this represented a slight cooling from 75,786 units in 2022, it remained the fifth-highest permitting year since 1988, contributing to a total of 343,779 permitted housing units in the metro between 2019 and 2023.

Indianapolis, IN

As of May 2023, the Indianapolis-Carmel-Anderson, IN MSA employed 3,320 Heating, Air Conditioning, and Refrigeration Mechanics and Installers (SOC 49-9021) with a location quotient of 1.17 (17% higher technician density than the national average) and a mean annual wage of $62,020.

Construction activity in the Indianapolis metro area has seen an upward trend, reaching 13,042 building permits pulled over the trailing 12-month period, a 26.7% year-over-year increase. Annual Census data recorded 11,463 total permits filed in the metro area valued at $3.98 billion, with single-family housing units accounting for 81.3% (9,322 permits).

Jacksonville, FL

According to occupational employment statistics for the Jacksonville, FL Metropolitan Statistical Area, there were 2,950 Heating, Air Conditioning, and Refrigeration Mechanics and Installers (SOC 49-9021) employed, representing a location quotient of 1.52 (52% higher worker density than the national average).

Single-family residential building permits across the Jacksonville metropolitan area (Clay, Duval, Nassau, and St. Johns counties) increased by 6.17% in 2024, with 12,551 permits issued compared to 11,821 in 2023.

Kansas City, MO

According to occupational employment data for the Kansas City, MO-KS metropolitan statistical area, there were 3,390 employed Heating, Air Conditioning, and Refrigeration Mechanics and Installers (SOC 49-9021). This represents an employment density of approximately 3.15 HVAC technicians per 1,000 jobs in the metro area and a location quotient of 1.20 relative to the national average.

Residential construction permitting in the Kansas City metro area expanded rapidly, reaching 10,714 permits over the trailing 12 months (4.11 permits per 1,000 residents), representing a 38.3% year-over-year increase. Major activity centers include Jackson County, MO (3,664 permits) and Johnson County, KS (2,956 permits).

Las Vegas, NV

As of May 2023, the Las Vegas-Henderson-Paradise, NV metropolitan statistical area employed 3,360 Heating, Air Conditioning, and Refrigeration Mechanics and Installers (SOC 49-9021), representing a location quotient of 1.18 relative to the national average.

Residential building permit activity in the Las Vegas-Henderson-Paradise MSA moderated from post-pandemic highs, with overall permitting issuing approximately 11,790 housing units in 2023 (including a ~12% year-over-year decline in single-family permits) as elevated interest rates transitioned the market from tight to balanced.

Los Angeles, CA

According to the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, the Los Angeles-Long Beach-Anaheim, CA metropolitan statistical area employed 8,440 Heating, Air Conditioning, and Refrigeration Mechanics and Installers, representing a density of 1.36 jobs per 1,000 total jobs in the metro area.

According to the U.S. Census Bureau Building Permits Survey, housing units authorized by building permits in the Los Angeles-Long Beach-Anaheim metro dropped 20.3% from 13,154 units in 2023 down to 10,488 units in 2024.

Louisville, KY

In the Louisville/Jefferson County, KY-IN metropolitan statistical area, there were 2,260 Heating, Air Conditioning, and Refrigeration Mechanics and Installers employed as of May 2023, representing a location quotient of 1.30 and an occupational density of 3.392 workers per 1,000 jobs.

Residential building permitting in the Louisville/Jefferson County metro area experienced a sharp contraction in 2022 due to rising mortgage rates (declining ~38% in Southern Indiana submarkets), followed by a multi-year recovery in 2023-2024 driven by demand for over 9,300 new sales units and 6,350 rental units, maintaining a rate of approximately 1.13 to 1.7 permitted units per 1,000 residents.

Memphis, TN

As of May 2023, there were 1,620 Heating, Air Conditioning, and Refrigeration Mechanics and Installers employed in the Memphis, TN-MS-AR metropolitan area, representing a concentration of 2.588 workers per 1,000 total jobs (a location quotient of 0.99 relative to national average).

Residential building activity in the Memphis MSA shows a soft to stabilizing trend, with approximately 1,200 single-family homes and 1,950 rental units under construction as of mid-2024. Over a 3-year forecast period, market demand is estimated at 10,800 new single-family units and 2,675 rental units across the metro.

Miami, FL

In the Miami-Fort Lauderdale-West Palm Beach, FL metropolitan statistical area, there were 9,540 employed Heating, Air Conditioning, and Refrigeration Mechanics and Installers (SOC 49-9021), representing a location quotient of 1.34 and a density of 3.50 workers per 1,000 total jobs.

Residential building permit activity in Miami-Dade County declined in 2024 to 10,608 total new housing units authorized (2,231 single-family and 8,377 multi-family units), down from 12,781 housing units authorized in 2023.

Milwaukee, WI

In the Milwaukee-Waukesha-West Allis, WI MSA, there were 1,810 Heating, Air Conditioning, and Refrigeration Mechanics and Installers (SOC 49-9021) employed as of May 2023, representing approximately 2.23 positions per 1,000 total jobs and a location quotient of 0.85 relative to the national average.

Residential building permit activity in the Milwaukee metropolitan area stagnated and declined slightly in 2022 before remaining roughly flat in 2023 due to elevated mortgage interest rates and rising construction costs. Single-family housing permits in the Milwaukee-Waukesha area declined 11% from a high of 2,075 units in 2021 to 1,850 units in 2022, while multi-family permitting saw a relative increase across Wisconsin (+61.3% in 2021-2023 compared to pre-pandemic 2017-2019 averages).

Minneapolis-St. Paul, MN

In the Minneapolis-St. Paul-Bloomington, MN-WI metropolitan statistical area, there were 2,800 employed Heating, Air Conditioning, and Refrigeration Mechanics and Installers (SOC 49-9021) as of May 2023, representing an employment concentration of 1.47 jobs per 1,000 total metro jobs.

Residential building permit activity in the Minneapolis-St. Paul-Bloomington metro area experienced a downward trend between 2020 and 2025, with single-month July permits dropping 38% from 1,988 units in July 2020 to 1,241 units in July 2025, driven by a 61% contraction in multifamily permitting.

Nashville, TN

According to the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, there were 3,480 Heating, Air Conditioning, and Refrigeration Mechanics and Installers (SOC 49-9021) employed in the Nashville-Davidson--Murfreesboro--Franklin, TN metropolitan statistical area.

According to the U.S. Census Bureau's Building Permits Survey, residential construction permit volume in Nashville-Davidson, TN contracted significantly year-over-year, authorizing 6,799 housing units in 2024 down from 11,158 units in 2023 (a decline of 4,359 units or approximately 39%).

New Orleans, LA

As of May 2023, there were 1,490 Heating, Air Conditioning, and Refrigeration Mechanics and Installers employed in the New Orleans-Metairie, LA MSA, representing 2.887 HVAC technicians per 1,000 total jobs in the metropolitan area (location quotient of 1.10).

Residential building permitting in the New Orleans-Metairie metro area experienced a significant downward trend, with total monthly permits falling by 68.4% (and single-family permits declining by 75%) between 2020 and 2025, alongside a 47.3% year-over-year contraction in 2024 multifamily unit authorizations.

New York, NY

In the New York-Newark-Jersey City, NY-NJ-PA Metropolitan Statistical Area, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reports 22,780 Heating, Air Conditioning, and Refrigeration Mechanics and Installers employed in the metro area.

Residential building permit volume in the New York-Newark-Jersey City MSA remains high with 54,565 housing units authorized over trailing 12-month periods, driven predominantly by multi-family structures (83.6% of permitted units), indicating robust ongoing demand for HVAC mechanical installation and retrofit work.

Oklahoma City, OK

According to the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, the Oklahoma City, OK MSA employed approximately 2,290 Heating, Air Conditioning, and Refrigeration Mechanics and Installers (SOC 49-9021) in May 2023, representing a location quotient of 1.33 (33% higher technician density than the national average).

Residential building permit activity for new private housing units in the Oklahoma City MSA moderated from peak levels of 600-890 units per month in early 2022 to approximately 310-500 units per month in 2023, reflecting higher interest rates before stabilizing.

Orlando, FL

According to the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) May 2023 OEWS data, the Orlando-Kissimmee-Sanford, FL MSA employed 4,930 Heating, Air Conditioning, and Refrigeration Mechanics and Installers (SOC 49-9021), representing a high employment density of approximately 3.605 HVAC mechanics per 1,000 total jobs in the metro area.

Data from the U.S. Census Bureau Building Permits Survey shows sustained high construction activity in the Orlando-Kissimmee-Sanford MSA, with annual new residential permit totals remaining robust between 24,000 and 27,000 units permitted annually from 2021 through 2024.

Philadelphia, PA

In the Philadelphia-Camden-Wilmington, PA-NJ-DE-MD MSA, there were 9,080 Heating, Air Conditioning, and Refrigeration Mechanics and Installers employed as of May 2023, representing an occupational density of 3.207 per 1,000 total jobs and a location quotient of 1.23 relative to the national average.

Residential building permit activity in the Philadelphia-Camden-Wilmington MSA contracted significantly after peaking in 2021-2022, led by a sharp drop in multi-family (5+ unit) permits (down over 70% from 2020 levels), while single-family home permitting showed a modest 10% year-over-year increase in PA in late 2024.

Phoenix, AZ

As of May 2024, the Phoenix-Mesa-Chandler, AZ MSA employed approximately 7,920 HVAC mechanics and installers (SOC 49-9021), ranking among the top metropolitan areas nationwide for trade employment with a high location quotient of 3.86.

New residential housing permits in the Phoenix-Mesa-Chandler MSA peaked in 2021-2022 (reaching over 42,000 units authorized) before moderating in 2023 and 2024 due to higher interest rates, though housing completion and permitting volumes remain historically strong.

Pittsburgh, PA

According to the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) May 2023 OEWS report, the Pittsburgh, PA Metropolitan Statistical Area employed approximately 3,650 Heating, Air Conditioning, and Refrigeration Mechanics and Installers (SOC 49-9021), representing a location quotient of 1.30 compared to the national average.

According to HUD's Comprehensive Housing Market Analysis for the Pittsburgh MSA, residential building permit activity averaged 3,325 homes permitted annually during 2022-2023, representing a downward trend from an average of 3,775 homes permitted annually during 2020-2021 due to out-migration and elevated interest rates.

Portland, OR

The Portland-Vancouver-Hillsboro, OR-WA MSA employs approximately 2,600 Heating, Air Conditioning, and Refrigeration Mechanics and Installers (SOC 49-9021), representing a location quotient of 0.82 relative to the national concentration.

Residential construction permitting in the Portland-Vancouver-Hillsboro MSA decreased sharply in 2024, with single-family unit permits down 2.7% year-over-year (1,649 units) and multi-family unit permits dropping 58.5% year-over-year (2,696 units).

Providence, RI

As of May 2023, the Providence-Warwick, RI-MA Metropolitan Statistical Area employed 1,370 Heating, Air Conditioning, and Refrigeration Mechanics and Installers (SOC 49-9021), representing a density rate of 2.413 workers per 1,000 total jobs in the metropolitan area.

In 2024, multi-family housing authorized by building permits accounted for 48.9% of all new privately owned housing units in the Providence-Warwick, RI-MA MSA, making it one of the highest multi-family permit shares among large U.S. metros amid historically constrained overall housing permitting in the region.

Raleigh, NC

According to the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics May 2024 OEWS data, the Raleigh-Cary, NC Metropolitan Statistical Area employed 2,570 Heating, Air Conditioning, and Refrigeration Mechanics and Installers (SOC 49-9021).

Residential construction permitting in the Raleigh-Cary metro area reached 18,396 authorized units over the trailing 12-month period, representing a 15.5% year-over-year increase and a rate of 12.69 building permits per 1,000 residents.

Richmond, VA

In the Richmond, VA Metropolitan Statistical Area, there were 2,460 employed Heating, Air Conditioning, and Refrigeration Mechanics and Installers (SOC 49-9021) as of May 2023, representing a location quotient of 1.45 and a concentration of 3.805 HVAC workers per 1,000 total jobs.

According to Census Bureau permitting data, residential construction in the Richmond, VA MSA saw single-family building permits stabilize at 1,477 units in 2024 (0.0% YoY change) after previous pullbacks in 2022 and 2023, while multifamily unit authorizations declined 14.0% to 3,408 units.

Riverside-San Bernardino, CA

In the Riverside-San Bernardino-Ontario, CA MSA, there were 5,890 employed Heating, Air Conditioning, and Refrigeration Mechanics and Installers (SOC 49-9021) as of May 2023, representing an employment density of 3.542 workers per 1,000 jobs and a location quotient of 1.35 relative to the national average.

In 2022, the Riverside-San Bernardino-Ontario MSA authorized 16,320 new residential building units according to the Census Building Permits Survey, a 4.6% increase over 2021 with a total construction value of $3.9 billion (+4.5%). Multi-family permitting grew over 45% to reach 5,150 units during the 12 months ending mid-2022, followed by a moderate slowdown in single-family permits in 2023 due to higher mortgage rates while multi-family construction remained steady.

Sacramento, CA

According to the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, the Sacramento-Roseville-Folsom, CA metropolitan area employed approximately 3,030 Heating, Air Conditioning, and Refrigeration Mechanics and Installers (SOC 49-9021) as of May 2023.

According to the U.S. Census Bureau Building Permits Survey, residential construction permitting in the Sacramento metro area reached 10,042 units over the trailing 12 months, reflecting a moderate softening in single-family permitting (down ~11% year-over-year) alongside a slight pullback in multi-family development compared to peak pandemic levels.

Salt Lake City, UT

According to the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, the Salt Lake City, UT Metropolitan Statistical Area employed 2,530 Heating, Air Conditioning, and Refrigeration Mechanics and Installers (SOC 49-9021) as of May 2023, representing an occupational density of 3.147 per 1,000 total jobs and a Location Quotient of 1.20.

Residential building permit volume in the Salt Lake City MSA grew rapidly between 2019 and 2022 with approximately 17,000 residential housing units authorized (with 79.5% concentrated in multi-family developments), followed by a moderate slowdown in single-family housing permits during 2023-2024 due to higher interest rates and land supply constraints.

San Antonio, TX

According to the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics Occupational Employment and Wage Statistics (OEWS), the San Antonio-New Braunfels, TX Metropolitan Statistical Area employed 2,860 Heating, Air Conditioning, and Refrigeration Mechanics and Installers (SOC 49-9021) as of May 2023, representing a density of 2.62 mechanics per 1,000 jobs in the metro area (a location quotient of 1.00 relative to the national average).

Residential building permit activity in the San Antonio-New Braunfels MSA reached 24,006 authorized units (+7.8% year-over-year) valued at $4.2 billion in 2022, before moderating to approximately 15,000-16,000 authorized housing units annually across 2023 and 2024.

San Diego, CA

In the San Diego-Carlsbad, CA Metropolitan Statistical Area, there were 3,410 Heating, Air Conditioning, and Refrigeration Mechanics and Installers (SOC 49-9021) employed as of May 2023.

Housing units authorized by building permits in San Diego, CA increased from 5,765 units in 2023 to 6,615 units in 2024 (an increase of 850 units or +14.8%). Across the broader San Diego region, 14,947 total housing units were permitted in 2024, led by multifamily construction (60%) and accessory dwelling units (27%).

San Francisco, CA

In the San Francisco-Oakland-Hayward, CA Metropolitan Statistical Area, there were 4,350 employed Heating, Air Conditioning, and Refrigeration Mechanics and Installers (SOC 49-9021), with a mean hourly wage of $38.40 and a mean annual wage of $79,870.

Residential building permitting activity in the San Francisco metropolitan area contracted sharply after 2022, with new construction permit volumes down roughly 52% from peak levels through 2025 in major sub-markets such as Alameda County due to high construction costs and interest rate pressures.

San Jose, CA

According to the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics OEWS data, the San Jose-Sunnyvale-Santa Clara, CA metropolitan statistical area employed 2,210 Heating, Air Conditioning, and Refrigeration Mechanics and Installers (SOC 49-9021), representing 1.94 workers per 1,000 jobs and a location quotient of 0.74 relative to the national average.

The San Jose-Sunnyvale-Santa Clara MSA saw a sharp 68% decline in total residential building permits comparing July 2020 to July 2025 (falling from 1,949 permits to 623 permits), driven primarily by a 74% collapse in 5+ unit multifamily housing permits (from 1,697 to 449 units).

Seattle, WA

In the Seattle-Tacoma-Bellevue, WA MSA, there were 4,070 employed Heating, Air Conditioning, and Refrigeration Mechanics and Installers (SOC 49-9021), representing a location quotient of 0.75 and an annual mean wage of $79,280 ($38.12 hourly mean wage).

New private housing units authorized by building permits in the Seattle-Tacoma-Bellevue, WA MSA reached 36,866 units in 2024, down slightly from 37,080 units in 2023 and down 24.5% from 48,798 units in 2022, indicating a moderation in construction activity relative to peak pandemic-era levels.

St. Louis, MO

According to the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, the St. Louis, MO-IL Metropolitan Statistical Area employed approximately 4,000 Heating, Air Conditioning, and Refrigeration Mechanics and Installers (SOC 49-9021) as of May 2023, representing a location quotient of 1.15 relative to the national average.

Residential construction permitting in the St. Louis MSA trended downward in 2025, with single-family building permits falling 10% year-over-year from 4,650 units in 2024 to 4,175 units in 2025, while multifamily unit permits decreased 19% from 2,050 to 1,650 units.

Tampa, FL

According to the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics May 2023 OEWS report, the Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater, FL MSA employs 6,050 Heating, Air Conditioning, and Refrigeration Mechanics and Installers (SOC 49-9021), representing 4.28 per 1,000 jobs with a Location Quotient of 1.64. U.S. Census Bureau County Business Patterns data indicates approximately 1,394 plumbing, heating, and air-conditioning contractor establishments (NAICS 238220) in the metro area, equivalent to 41.7 establishments per 100,000 residents.

According to the U.S. Census Bureau Building Permits Survey, the Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater MSA authorized 16,352 new privately-owned housing units in 2024, ranking 11th among all U.S. metropolitan areas. Permitting activity in 2025-2026 remained resilient with modest year-over-year gains in total residential authorizations, driven by multifamily construction gains.

Virginia Beach, VA

According to the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) May 2023 Occupational Employment and Wage Statistics (OEWS), the Virginia Beach-Norfolk-Newport News, VA-NC metropolitan area employs 3,020 Heating, Air Conditioning, and Refrigeration Mechanics and Installers (SOC 49-9021).

According to Virginia REALTORS and U.S. Census Bureau Building Permits Survey data, residential building permit activity in the Virginia Beach metropolitan area saw a decline in single-family permits of 11.6% in 2023, reflecting a broader statewide residential permitting slowdown due to higher interest rates and housing market supply constraints.

Washington DC, DC

As of May 2023, there were 7,590 Heating, Air Conditioning, and Refrigeration Mechanics and Installers (SOC 49-9021) employed in the Washington-Arlington-Alexandria, DC-VA-MD-WV metropolitan area, representing a location quotient of 0.94 relative to national trade density and an annual mean wage of $68,420.

New residential building permits in the Washington-Arlington-Alexandria metro area declined 16% year-over-year, dropping from 21,487 permitted units in 2024 to 18,073 units in 2025.

Building stock (demand base)

Age can inform trade-specific replacement mechanisms, but this cross-sectional file does not measure replacement speed or prove a tailwind across trades. Public state and county tax-assessor and property records (aggregated). Aggregate-only; no individual property or owner identified.

Construction eraBuildingsShare
pre-19601,675,48118.4%
1960-791,224,84813.5%
1980-991,367,31215.1%
2000-09756,8108.3%
2010+477,4515.3%
unknown3,582,98539.4%

Reputation & professionalization

Public business-review listings (aggregated April 2026). Aggregate only; no individual business identified.

Businesses analyzed42,943
Average rating3.74
Rating (p25 / median / p75)3 / 4 / 4.8
Reviews (median / p90)9 / 64
Claimed listings77.2%
Marked closed4.8%

Firmographics

Aggregated public business firmographic records (multi-source SMB dataset). Revenue/employee/age/employer-rating distributions per trade. Aggregate only; no individual company identified.

Companies analyzed14,629
Revenue (p25 / median / p75 / p90)$6.1M / $10.8M / $22.7M / $40.0M
Employees (p25 / median / p75)36 / 55 / 98
Median founding year2002
Avg employer rating3.6

Level CFO benchmarks & public-company reads

Level · https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/ (free to cite with attribution to Level, levelcfo.com)

MetricValueDetailTier
Public commercial-mechanical gross margin19% to 24%Comfort Systems USA (FIX) 24.1%, EMCOR (EME) 19.3%, FY2025. A
Public commercial-mechanical operating margin10% to 14%Comfort Systems 14.4%, EMCOR 10.1%, FY2025. A
HVAC mechanic median wage (SOC 49-9021)$59,810/yrMean $62,690, ~397,000 employed, median hourly $28.75. A
Commercial mechanical DSO (implied)~90 to 105 daysEMCOR ~91, Comfort Systems ~103, computed from FY2025 receivables/revenue. Residential service collects far faster. A
All-contractor net profit before tax6.3% (top quartile ~11.9%)The reality-check on what a healthy contractor nets. B
US HVAC contractor market size~$159B, ~115,000-120,000 firmsFragmented; no firm above a few percent share. B

These operating benchmarks come from Level CFO's contractor analysis. For the full finance-side breakdown, see HVAC profit margin benchmarks.

Historical public-company reference

Snapshot dated 2026-07-23. These large scaled operators provide historical context, not live quotes, current valuation comparisons, or a benchmark for a typical private contractor.

Company1y returnGross marginEV/EBITDAMarket cap
AAON, Inc. (AAON)29.2%26.24%35.95$8.66B
Carrier Global Corporation (CARR)4.4%25.18%21.87$57.59B
EMCOR Group, Inc. (EME)21.8%19.29%17.67$33.06B
Fastenal Company (FAST)-8.7%44.7%26.83$52.48B
Comfort Systems USA, Inc. (FIX)154.6%25.15%33.46$58.83B
Gates Industrial Corporation plc (GTES)7.2%40.3%11.67$6.87B
W.W. Grainger, Inc. (GWW)33.6%39.15%22.06$64.78B
Johnson Controls International plc (JCI)33.3%36.56%21.78$85.03B
Lennox International Inc. (LII)-4.5%33.19%17.63$18.44B
Limbach Holdings, Inc. (LMB)-34.2%25.1%14.76$0.88B
Trane Technologies plc (TT)14%35.92%25.38$103.89B
Watsco, Inc. (WSO)-10%28%22.22$14.37B

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