{
  "slug": "hvac",
  "name": "HVAC & Refrigeration",
  "in_level_book": true,
  "scores": {
    "resilience": 83.4,
    "leverage": 81.3,
    "trade_ai_score": 82.3,
    "quadrant": "transform-and-win",
    "quadrant_label": "Transform & Win",
    "quadrant_desc": "Protected from AI and full of upside. The best place to be — press the advantage.",
    "resilience_rel": 100,
    "leverage_rel": 82
  },
  "subscores": {
    "resilience": {
      "physical_core": 90,
      "disintermediation": 78,
      "entry_barrier": 80,
      "switching_cost": 82
    },
    "leverage": {
      "coordination_drag": 80,
      "operating_leverage": 85,
      "revenue_expansion": 78,
      "data_amplification": 82
    },
    "basis": "On-site repair/install AI cannot perform; heavy service-agreement lock-in; strong recurring revenue. High coordination drag (dispatch, parts, warranty) = large AI upside. Level core vertical."
  },
  "research": {
    "labor": {
      "median_hourly_wage_usd": 28.75,
      "median_wage_source": "U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, Occupational Outlook Handbook (https://www.bls.gov/ooh/installation-maintenance-and-repair/heating-air-conditioning-and-refrigeration-mechanics-and-installers.htm)",
      "median_wage_year": "2024",
      "us_employment": 425200,
      "employment_source": "U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, Occupational Outlook Handbook, 2024 (https://www.bls.gov/ooh/installation-maintenance-and-repair/heating-air-conditioning-and-refrigeration-mechanics-and-installers.htm)",
      "projected_10yr_growth_pct": 8,
      "growth_source": "U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, Occupational Outlook Handbook, 2024–2034 Projections (https://www.bls.gov/ooh/installation-maintenance-and-repair/heating-air-conditioning-and-refrigeration-mechanics-and-installers.htm)",
      "labor_shortage_note": "An average of 40,100 job openings for heating, air conditioning, and refrigeration mechanics and installers are projected each year from 2024 to 2034, largely driven by the need to replace retiring workers or those exiting the trade.",
      "labor_shortage_source": "U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, Occupational Outlook Handbook, 2024 (https://www.bls.gov/ooh/installation-maintenance-and-repair/heating-air-conditioning-and-refrigeration-mechanics-and-installers.htm)"
    },
    "market": {
      "industry_revenue_usd": 159400000000,
      "revenue_source": "IBISWorld - Heating & Air-Conditioning Contractors in the US (https://www.ibisworld.com/united-states/market-research-reports/heating-air-conditioning-contractors-industry/)",
      "revenue_year": "2026",
      "num_establishments": 120461,
      "establishments_source": "IBISWorld - Number of Businesses in the Heating & Air-Conditioning Contractors Industry in the US (https://www.ibisworld.com/industry-statistics/number-of-businesses/heating-air-conditioning-contractors-united-states/)",
      "fragmentation_note": "The US HVAC contracting industry is highly fragmented with an average firm size of 5.2 employees per business, and the top three players holding a combined market share (CR3) of under 7%.",
      "fragmentation_source": "IBISWorld - Heating & Air-Conditioning Contractors in the US (https://www.ibisworld.com/united-states/market-research-reports/heating-air-conditioning-contractors-industry/)"
    },
    "economics": {
      "gross_margin_pct": 22.4,
      "gross_margin_source": "CFMA 2025 Construction Financial Benchmarker (Specialty Trades segment benchmark using FY2024 data), https://www.cfma.org",
      "net_margin_pct": 5.8,
      "net_margin_source": "Air Conditioning Contractors of America (ACCA) 2024 Financial Benchmarking Study, https://www.acca.org",
      "labor_pct_of_revenue": 29.4,
      "labor_pct_source": "IBISWorld Heating & Air-Conditioning Contractors in the US Industry Report (2024), https://www.ibisworld.com",
      "revenue_per_employee_usd": 329747,
      "rev_per_employee_source": "Comfort Systems USA, Inc. 2023 Form 10-K Annual Report ($5.21B total revenue / 15,800 employees), https://www.sec.gov"
    },
    "cash_cycle": {
      "dso_days": 97,
      "dso_source": "Comfort Systems USA, Inc. SEC Form 10-K (2025) / Finbox Analytics, 2025, https://www.sec.gov/edgar/browse/?CIK=0001035983",
      "retainage_pct": 10,
      "retainage_source": "Levelset / Procore 2022 Construction Cash Flow & Payment Report (2022), https://www.levelset.com/2022-construction-cash-flow-payment-report/",
      "days_to_payment": 83,
      "days_to_payment_source": "Levelset & PwC Working Capital Survey, National Construction Payment Report (2020), https://www.levelset.com/blog/national-construction-payment-report/",
      "cashflow_note": "According to the Levelset / Procore 2022 Construction Cash Flow & Payment Report, only 12% of construction companies report always being paid on time according to contract terms, while slow payments caused wasted resources for 45% of contractors, reduced profits for 41%, and difficulty meeting payroll for 18%.",
      "cashflow_source": "Levelset / Procore 2022 Construction Cash Flow & Payment Report (2022), https://www.levelset.com/2022-construction-cash-flow-payment-report/"
    },
    "ai_exposure": {
      "ai_resistant_work": "Physical on-site trade work remains highly resistant to AI and automation due to its complex tactile requirements, non-standardized working environments, and custom physical building constraints. Core AI-resistant tasks include: physical equipment installation and system retrofits (mounting outdoor air-handler units, running copper refrigerant lines, fitting sheet metal ductwork, and line-brazing/soldering); emergency hands-on troubleshooting and mechanical repairs; manual diagnostics in tight or hazardous spaces (attics, crawlspaces, and commercial rooftops); and regulated physical operations such as EPA Section 608-compliant refrigerant recovery, pressure leak testing, and vacuum evacuation. These tasks demand physical spatial reasoning, manual dexterity, adaptive problem-solving, and specialized physical trade skills that software algorithms cannot execute.",
      "automatable_work": "Back-office administration, customer coordination, estimating, and scheduling in HVAC & Refrigeration are highly automatable through AI and Field Service Management (FSM) platforms. Key automatable functions include: (1) Customer Call Handling & Scheduling: 24/7 AI voice and chat agents that answer customer calls, handle emergency routing, and dynamically book appointments into CRMs; (2) Dispatching & Route Optimization: automated scheduling based on technician location, traffic, skill levels, and job priority; (3) Estimating & Follow-ups: AI-driven bid/quote generation and automated sales follow-up workflows for unsold estimates; (4) Compliance & Recordkeeping: automated EPA refrigerant tracking, invoice processing, and recordkeeping (saving technicians manual paperwork); and (5) Real-Time Field Knowledge: AI knowledge-base assistants providing instant access to equipment manuals, error codes, and historical job logs.",
      "adoption_examples": "Documented industry research and contractor case studies reflect growing AI adoption: (1) ServiceTitan's 2026 State of AI in the Trades study (surveying over 1,000 contractors) found that while 12% have fully embedded AI into daily operations and 34% are actively experimenting, 62% of AI users report measurable productivity gains saving 3+ hours per week; (2) A 2026 survey of 600+ commercial HVAC contractors showed 43% use AI for jobsite search and chat assistance, 40% for automated compliance tracking, and 38% for recordkeeping, with apprentices 23% more likely to rely on AI for estimating than senior technicians; (3) At the ACCA 2025 conference, contractors showcased platforms like RILLA (voice AI analyzing technician customer interactions for automated sales coaching) and UpSmith/Podium integrated at Virginia contractor Leonard Splaine Co., which automated estimate follow-ups and increased closed sales on unsold estimates by 25%.",
      "sources": [
        "Air Conditioning Contractors of America (ACCA), 2025, https://www.acca.org/ai-implementation-moves-from-experimental-to-operational-in-hvacr-industry/",
        "ServiceTitan, 2026, https://www.servicetitan.com/blog/ai-in-hvac",
        "ACHR NEWS / Podium & UpSmith Case Study, 2026, https://www.achrnews.com/articles/154406-how-contractors-are-navigating-the-ai-landscape"
      ]
    },
    "ma_consolidation": {
      "consolidation_activity": "The US HVAC & Refrigeration trade is experiencing aggressive, ongoing private-equity consolidation driven by market fragmentation, predictable recurring service-contract revenue, and climate/regulatory tailwinds. PitchBook reported a record 55 PE HVAC platform deals in 2024 (a 72% YoY increase), with CapIQ tracking over 60 deals in H1 2025. Sponsors execute buy-and-build strategies by purchasing local/regional providers as add-ons, building density, and capitalizing on multiple expansion via platform recapitalizations.",
      "typical_ebitda_multiple": "Acquisition multiples span multiple tiers based on company scale and buyer type: small add-on/tuck-in targets ($1M–$5M EBITDA) typically trade at 4x–8x EBITDA; lower-middle-market regional platforms ($5M–$25M EBITDA) command 7x–11x EBITDA (with Capstone Partners citing a 9.5x EV/EBITDA average for HVAC services transactions in 2024–2026); and large-scale national platforms with high service-agreement density command 15x–18.5x+ EBITDA in institutional recapitalizations.",
      "multiple_source": "Capstone Partners HVAC Services Sector M&A Report (2026); Forbes Partners HVAC M&A Industry Update (2025); First Page Sage Private HVAC Valuation Multiples Report (2025); CSW Industrials Inc. (NYSE:CSW) SEC Filings / M&A Announcements (2025).",
      "notable_acquirers_or_deals": "1. Apex Service Partners (backed by Alpine Investors / Apollo Global Management): Apollo executed a strategic investment in May 2026 valuing Apex at ~$10 billion EV after completing ~60 add-on acquisitions in 2025 alone. 2. Champions Group: Acquired by Blackstone (BXPE) in February 2026 for ~$2.5 billion EV at an ~18.5x EBITDA multiple. 3. Sila Services: Goldman Sachs Alternatives completed a majority recapitalization in November 2024 from Morgan Stanley Capital Partners (~$1.7B EV). 4. Service Logic: Acquired by Bain Capital and Mubadala in December 2025 ($1B+ EV). 5. Aspen Manufacturing / CSW Industrials (NYSE:CSW): Acquired by CSW Industrials in March 2025 for $313.5 million (~11.0x EV/EBITDA).",
      "sources": [
        "Capstone Partners (2026) 'HVAC Services Sector M&A Update' - https://capstonepartners.com/insights/report-hvac-services-market-update/",
        "Capstone Partners (2026) 'HVAC Equipment Sector M&A Update' - https://capstonepartners.com/insights/report-hvac-equipment-sector-update-april-2026/",
        "Forbes Partners (2025) 'HVAC M&A Industry Update' - https://forbes-partners.com/insights/hvac-ma-industry-update-2025/",
        "First Page Sage (2025) 'EBITDA Multiples for Private HVAC Companies' - https://firstpagesage.com/reports/hvac-company-valuation-multiples/",
        "Main Street Wealth (2026) 'HVAC Buyer List 2026: PE Platforms, Strategics & Sponsors' - https://mainstreetwealth.ai/resources/hvac-buyer-list-2026"
      ]
    },
    "tech_stack": {
      "dominant_fsm_software": "ServiceTitan is the leading field service management (FSM) platform widely adopted by US residential and commercial HVAC contractors, alongside other major industry platforms such as FieldEdge, Housecall Pro, Jobber, WorkWave, and (commercial HVAC).",
      "common_accounting_software": "Intuit QuickBooks (QuickBooks Online and QuickBooks Desktop) serves as the primary accounting platform and industry standard for small-to-midsize US HVAC contractors. For larger, multi-entity, or mid-market contractors, Sage (Sage Intacct, Sage 100 Contractor) and Xero are commonly utilized.",
      "adoption_or_integration_note": "According to the Business Research Insights 2026 US HVAC Service Management Software Market report, while 64% of U.S. HVAC companies utilize digital scheduling platforms and 58% have adopted mobile technician applications, only 49% integrate their FSM software directly with accounting platforms—leaving a significant integration gap where over half of contractors rely on manual data re-entry or non-integrated accounting tools.",
      "sources": [
        "Business Research Insights (2026) - HVAC Service Management Software Market Report, https://www.businessresearchinsights.com",
        "SNS Insider (2026) - HVAC Service Management Software Market Size & Industry Analysis, https://www.snsinsider.com",
        "Therapeutic Tax (2025) - Best Accounting Software Options for HVAC Companies, https://therapeutictax.com"
      ]
    }
  },
  "market_structure": {
    "permits": [
      {
        "trade_category": "HVAC",
        "permit_year": "2022",
        "permits": "1401318",
        "contractors": "68514",
        "p25_job_value": "3215.0",
        "median_job_value": "8010.0",
        "p75_job_value": "43097.0",
        "p90_job_value": "250941.0"
      },
      {
        "trade_category": "HVAC",
        "permit_year": "2023",
        "permits": "1539132",
        "contractors": "66512",
        "p25_job_value": "3931.0",
        "median_job_value": "9624.0",
        "p75_job_value": "53798.0",
        "p90_job_value": "305471.0"
      },
      {
        "trade_category": "HVAC",
        "permit_year": "2024",
        "permits": "1002157",
        "contractors": "60530",
        "p25_job_value": "4269.0",
        "median_job_value": "10877.0",
        "p75_job_value": "56593.0",
        "p90_job_value": "299417.0"
      }
    ],
    "seasonality": [
      {
        "trade_category": "HVAC",
        "permit_month": "01",
        "permits": "120700",
        "avg_value": "307433.0"
      },
      {
        "trade_category": "HVAC",
        "permit_month": "02",
        "permits": "110001",
        "avg_value": "183727.0"
      },
      {
        "trade_category": "HVAC",
        "permit_month": "03",
        "permits": "132976",
        "avg_value": "203932.0"
      },
      {
        "trade_category": "HVAC",
        "permit_month": "04",
        "permits": "116617",
        "avg_value": "213871.0"
      },
      {
        "trade_category": "HVAC",
        "permit_month": "05",
        "permits": "127829",
        "avg_value": "275477.0"
      },
      {
        "trade_category": "HVAC",
        "permit_month": "06",
        "permits": "125365",
        "avg_value": "229453.0"
      },
      {
        "trade_category": "HVAC",
        "permit_month": "07",
        "permits": "118050",
        "avg_value": "264763.0"
      },
      {
        "trade_category": "HVAC",
        "permit_month": "08",
        "permits": "143682",
        "avg_value": "236648.0"
      },
      {
        "trade_category": "HVAC",
        "permit_month": "09",
        "permits": "124335",
        "avg_value": "219607.0"
      },
      {
        "trade_category": "HVAC",
        "permit_month": "10",
        "permits": "144810",
        "avg_value": "178964.0"
      },
      {
        "trade_category": "HVAC",
        "permit_month": "11",
        "permits": "139106",
        "avg_value": "297271.0"
      },
      {
        "trade_category": "HVAC",
        "permit_month": "12",
        "permits": "135661",
        "avg_value": "215048.0"
      }
    ],
    "size_tiers": [
      {
        "trade_category": "HVAC",
        "size_tier": "Micro (5-19)",
        "contractors": "42614",
        "avg_total_value_m": "2.64"
      },
      {
        "trade_category": "HVAC",
        "size_tier": "Small (20-99)",
        "contractors": "20064",
        "avg_total_value_m": "8.46"
      },
      {
        "trade_category": "HVAC",
        "size_tier": "Mid (100-499)",
        "contractors": "5216",
        "avg_total_value_m": "33.89"
      },
      {
        "trade_category": "HVAC",
        "size_tier": "Large (500+)",
        "contractors": "1086",
        "avg_total_value_m": "202.42"
      }
    ],
    "top_states": [
      {
        "trade_category": "HVAC",
        "state": "FL",
        "permits": "784431",
        "contractors": "23472",
        "median_job_value": "6568.0"
      },
      {
        "trade_category": "HVAC",
        "state": "CA",
        "permits": "356626",
        "contractors": "20452",
        "median_job_value": "7691.0"
      },
      {
        "trade_category": "HVAC",
        "state": "TX",
        "permits": "277117",
        "contractors": "12364",
        "median_job_value": "12783.0"
      },
      {
        "trade_category": "HVAC",
        "state": "NC",
        "permits": "275761",
        "contractors": "12494",
        "median_job_value": "13290.0"
      },
      {
        "trade_category": "HVAC",
        "state": "OR",
        "permits": "236365",
        "contractors": "4738",
        "median_job_value": "9074.0"
      },
      {
        "trade_category": "HVAC",
        "state": "CO",
        "permits": "194850",
        "contractors": "4486",
        "median_job_value": "8772.0"
      },
      {
        "trade_category": "HVAC",
        "state": "WA",
        "permits": "160725",
        "contractors": "4778",
        "median_job_value": "18415.0"
      },
      {
        "trade_category": "HVAC",
        "state": "GA",
        "permits": "131856",
        "contractors": "2953",
        "median_job_value": "12931.0"
      },
      {
        "trade_category": "HVAC",
        "state": "OH",
        "permits": "125724",
        "contractors": "4580",
        "median_job_value": "31110.0"
      },
      {
        "trade_category": "HVAC",
        "state": "MN",
        "permits": "120393",
        "contractors": "3059",
        "median_job_value": "11881.0"
      }
    ]
  },
  "reputation": {
    "available": true,
    "source": "Public business-review listings (aggregated April 2026). Aggregate only; no individual business identified.",
    "n_businesses": 42943,
    "avg_rating": 3.74,
    "rating_p25": 3,
    "rating_median": 4,
    "rating_p75": 4.8,
    "avg_reviews": 30.43,
    "reviews_median": 9,
    "reviews_p90": 64,
    "claimed_pct": 77.2,
    "closed_pct": 4.8,
    "top_states": [
      {
        "state": "CA",
        "n": 8110
      },
      {
        "state": "TX",
        "n": 4045
      },
      {
        "state": "FL",
        "n": 3654
      },
      {
        "state": "NY",
        "n": 1752
      },
      {
        "state": "IL",
        "n": 1747
      }
    ]
  },
  "firmographics": {
    "available": true,
    "source": "Aggregated public business firmographic records (multi-source SMB dataset). Revenue/employee/age/employer-rating distributions per trade. Aggregate only; no individual company identified.",
    "n_companies": 14629,
    "revenue_usd": {
      "n": 6041,
      "p25": 6100000,
      "median": 10800000,
      "p75": 22749644,
      "p90": 40000000
    },
    "employees": {
      "n": 3321,
      "p25": 36,
      "median": 55,
      "p75": 98,
      "p90": 171
    },
    "founded_year_median": 2002,
    "employer_rating_avg": 3.6,
    "employer_rating_n": 3237,
    "top_states": []
  },
  "level_published": {
    "slug": "hvac",
    "trade": "HVAC",
    "page": "https://levelcfo.com/benchmarks/hvac/",
    "public_company_comps": [
      "Comfort Systems USA (FIX)",
      "EMCOR (EME)",
      "Limbach (LMB)"
    ],
    "benchmarks": [
      {
        "tier": "A",
        "metric": "Public commercial-mechanical gross margin",
        "value": "19% to 24%",
        "detail": "Comfort Systems USA (FIX) 24.1%, EMCOR (EME) 19.3%, FY2025.",
        "source": "SEC 10-K filings (FIX, EME) FY2025",
        "url": "https://www.sec.gov/cgi-bin/browse-edgar?action=getcompany&CIK=0001035983&type=10-K"
      },
      {
        "tier": "A",
        "metric": "Public commercial-mechanical operating margin",
        "value": "10% to 14%",
        "detail": "Comfort Systems 14.4%, EMCOR 10.1%, FY2025.",
        "source": "SEC 10-K filings FY2025",
        "url": "https://www.sec.gov/cgi-bin/browse-edgar?action=getcompany&CIK=0000105634&type=10-K"
      },
      {
        "tier": "A",
        "metric": "HVAC mechanic median wage (SOC 49-9021)",
        "value": "$59,810/yr",
        "detail": "Mean $62,690, ~397,000 employed, median hourly $28.75.",
        "source": "BLS OEWS, May 2024",
        "url": "https://www.bls.gov/oes/tables.htm"
      },
      {
        "tier": "A",
        "metric": "Commercial mechanical DSO (implied)",
        "value": "~90 to 105 days",
        "detail": "EMCOR ~91, Comfort Systems ~103, computed from FY2025 receivables/revenue. Residential service collects far faster.",
        "source": "Computed from SEC 10-K filings FY2025",
        "url": "https://www.sec.gov/cgi-bin/browse-edgar?action=getcompany&CIK=0001035983&type=10-K"
      },
      {
        "tier": "B",
        "metric": "All-contractor net profit before tax",
        "value": "6.3% (top quartile ~11.9%)",
        "detail": "The reality-check on what a healthy contractor nets.",
        "source": "CFMA 2024 Construction Financial Benchmarker (n=1,290)",
        "url": "https://cfma.org/benchmarker"
      },
      {
        "tier": "B",
        "metric": "US HVAC contractor market size",
        "value": "~$159B, ~115,000-120,000 firms",
        "detail": "Fragmented; no firm above a few percent share.",
        "source": "IBISWorld, Heating & Air-Conditioning Contractors (2025/2026)",
        "url": "https://www.ibisworld.com/united-states/industry/heating-air-conditioning-contractors/1945/"
      },
      {
        "tier": "C",
        "metric": "Service vs install gross margin (small/residential)",
        "value": "service ~48-58%, install ~30-40%",
        "detail": "Directional; service and maintenance carry materially higher gross margin than new installation.",
        "source": "Industry coaching sources (ServiceTitan, CallJolt) - directional",
        "url": "https://www.servicetitan.com/blog/hvac-profit-margins"
      }
    ],
    "key_stat": {
      "value": "24.1%",
      "label": "gross margin, Comfort Systems USA (largest public commercial mechanical contractor, FY2025 10-K)"
    },
    "hero_stats": [
      {
        "value": "24.1%",
        "caption": "Gross margin",
        "label": "largest public commercial HVAC contractor (FIX, FY2025)"
      },
      {
        "value": "$59,810",
        "caption": "Median tech wage",
        "label": "HVAC mechanics (BLS OEWS, May 2024)"
      },
      {
        "value": "~90-105 days",
        "caption": "DSO",
        "label": "commercial mechanical (SEC filings)"
      },
      {
        "value": "~$159B",
        "caption": "US market size",
        "label": "HVAC contractors (IBISWorld)"
      }
    ],
    "segment_reads": {
      "title": "What the public HVAC and mechanical contractors actually earn",
      "note": "n/d = not disclosed at that cut. EMCOR FY2025 consolidated operating margin (10.1%) includes an 85 bps one-time gain on a UK-ops sale; the segment margins shown are clean.",
      "rows": [
        {
          "company": "Comfort Systems USA (FIX)",
          "scope": "Consolidated, FY2025",
          "gross": "24.1%",
          "operating": "14.4%",
          "net": "~11.2%",
          "note": "Largest public commercial mechanical/HVAC contractor. Does not split service vs construction."
        },
        {
          "company": "EMCOR (EME)",
          "scope": "US Mechanical Construction segment, FY2025",
          "gross": "n/d",
          "operating": "12.8%",
          "net": "n/d",
          "note": "The construction arm."
        },
        {
          "company": "EMCOR (EME)",
          "scope": "US Building Services segment, FY2025",
          "gross": "n/d",
          "operating": "6.0%",
          "net": "n/d",
          "note": "The recurring facilities/O&M arm (bid on price), roughly half the construction margin. Note this is O&M, not owner-direct repair, see Limbach ODR below."
        },
        {
          "company": "Limbach (LMB)",
          "scope": "Consolidated, FY2025",
          "gross": "26.2%",
          "operating": "7.7%",
          "net": "6.0%",
          "note": "Pivoting hard toward direct-to-owner service work (75% of revenue in FY2025)."
        }
      ]
    },
    "true_margin_bridge": {
      "headline": "The service call looked like a 55% job. After the truck, the tech burden, and the callback, it is closer to 30%.",
      "method": "Reproduce it on your own book: start from the quoted gross margin, subtract the fully-burdened technician hours (BLS SOC 49-9021 median $28.75/hr times about 1.3 for taxes, workers' comp, and benefits), then the truck, drive, and dispatch time the job never gets charged for, then the callback rate on that job type. The gap between the quoted margin and what lands is where service shops quietly lose money on jobs that look profitable on the invoice.",
      "chart": {
        "title": "Where a residential HVAC service call's apparent margin goes",
        "unit": "%",
        "sample": "Level analysis; labor anchored to BLS SOC 49-9021 wage + statutory burden",
        "points": [
          {
            "name": "Apparent gross margin",
            "value": 55
          },
          {
            "name": "Less fully-burdened tech",
            "value": 44
          },
          {
            "name": "Less truck / drive / dispatch",
            "value": 37
          },
          {
            "name": "True margin after callback",
            "value": 30
          }
        ]
      }
    },
    "findings": [
      {
        "headline": "HVAC service work out-earns installation, but only at the small-shop level.",
        "insight": "Across independent operator sources, residential service and maintenance runs roughly 50 to 58% gross, equipment install 35 to 48%, and new construction 28 to 38%. Service carries more billable diagnostic labor and less pass-through material. These are directional industry figures, not measured survey data, but the direction is consistent across sources.",
        "source": "CallJolt, Profitability Partners, RunClockwork 2026 (directional)",
        "chart": {
          "title": "Gross margin by job type (directional, industry sources)",
          "unit": "%",
          "sample": "Directional: CallJolt, Profitability Partners, RunClockwork (2026)",
          "points": [
            {
              "name": "Service / maintenance",
              "value": 55
            },
            {
              "name": "Equipment install",
              "value": 42
            },
            {
              "name": "New construction",
              "value": 33
            }
          ]
        }
      },
      {
        "headline": "Not all 'service' is one business. Recurring O&M runs thin at scale; owner-direct service does not.",
        "insight": "EMCOR is the one public contractor that breaks out its recurring building-services (facilities O&M) arm. In FY2025 it ran a 6.0% operating margin, roughly half its mechanical-construction segment at 12.8%, because large O&M contracts are bid on price and carry heavy admin and personnel overhead. Do not read that as 'all service thins at scale.' Limbach's owner-direct service arm ran a 31.2% gross margin in FY2024 versus 21.1% for its subcontracted construction (gross, same company). The service premium is real, it lives in owner-direct diagnostic and repair work, not in low-bid recurring O&M.",
        "source": "EMCOR FY2025 10-K; Limbach FY2024 10-K",
        "url": "https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/105634/000010563426000025/eme-20251231.htm",
        "chart": {
          "title": "EMCOR segment operating margin, FY2025",
          "unit": "%",
          "sample": "EMCOR FY2025 10-K segment operating income",
          "points": [
            {
              "name": "Mechanical Construction",
              "value": 12.8
            },
            {
              "name": "Electrical Construction",
              "value": 12.1
            },
            {
              "name": "Building Services (recurring O&M)",
              "value": 6
            }
          ]
        }
      },
      {
        "headline": "The HVAC tech wage runs from about $19 to $44 an hour, and your local market sets your labor cost.",
        "insight": "These are employee wages, not your fully-loaded cost. Add roughly 30% for payroll taxes, workers' comp, and benefits to get true cost per hour, then compare it to your revenue per labor hour. Costing labor at the base wage is the single most common reason a job that looks profitable on the invoice is not.",
        "source": "BLS Occupational Employment & Wage Statistics, May 2024, SOC 49-9021",
        "chart": {
          "title": "HVAC mechanic hourly wage percentiles (BLS OEWS, May 2024)",
          "unit": "",
          "sample": "BLS OEWS May 2024, SOC 49-9021 (n=396,870)",
          "points": [
            {
              "name": "P10",
              "value": 18.81
            },
            {
              "name": "P25",
              "value": 23
            },
            {
              "name": "Median",
              "value": 28.75
            },
            {
              "name": "P75",
              "value": 35.97
            },
            {
              "name": "P90",
              "value": 43.76
            }
          ]
        }
      }
    ],
    "_license": "https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/ (free to cite with attribution to Level, levelcfo.com)",
    "_publisher": "Level"
  },
  "comps": [
    {
      "ticker": "CARR",
      "name": "Carrier Global Corporation",
      "return_6m_pct": 3.6,
      "return_1y_pct": 2.3,
      "gross_margin_pct": 25.84,
      "ev_ebitda": 21.58,
      "market_cap_billions": 56.32
    },
    {
      "ticker": "EME",
      "name": "EMCOR Group, Inc.",
      "return_6m_pct": 4.9,
      "return_1y_pct": 22.6,
      "gross_margin_pct": 18.7,
      "ev_ebitda": 17.67,
      "market_cap_billions": 33.06
    },
    {
      "ticker": "FIX",
      "name": "Comfort Systems USA, Inc.",
      "return_6m_pct": 24.1,
      "return_1y_pct": 152.1,
      "gross_margin_pct": 26.3,
      "ev_ebitda": 35,
      "market_cap_billions": 60.31
    },
    {
      "ticker": "LII",
      "name": "Lennox International Inc.",
      "return_6m_pct": -7,
      "return_1y_pct": -5,
      "gross_margin_pct": 33.19,
      "ev_ebitda": 18.3,
      "market_cap_billions": 19.21
    },
    {
      "ticker": "WSO",
      "name": "Watsco, Inc.",
      "return_6m_pct": -10.6,
      "return_1y_pct": -7.3,
      "gross_margin_pct": 28.01,
      "ev_ebitda": 22.22,
      "market_cap_billions": 16.45
    }
  ]
}